Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose just 0.16 percent for the month, the lowest reading in more than two years and a significant downside break. There are a number of reasons why it was such a big deal, including:¹

• It was a downside surprise compared to the consensus estimate of 0.30%.
• On a YoY basis, 0.16% translates to 1.92% inflation on an annual basis. Whoa!
• It may give the Fed some flexibility with interest rates in the second half of 2023.
• June’s Producer Price Index, released the day after the June CPI report, rose less than expected, building on the optimism about inflation.

I don’t put too much weight on individual reports, so at this point, I’m looking for more information before drawing any conclusions about the economy, inflation, and interest rates.

Also, inflation is tricky, and people can have different experiences with rising prices depending on their spending habits. So please, contact me if you are concerned about inflation. Reports showing inflation is trending lower are great, but your experience with inflation matters most to me.

^{1. CNBC.com, July 13, 2023. “S&P 500 rises for a fourth day on more encouraging inflation data.”}

^{This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG Suite is not affiliated with the named broker-dealer, state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm.}

Positive inflation data failed to lift stocks from their August doldrums last week as economic data and a ratings downgrade soured investor sentiment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.62%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 slipped 0.31%. The Nasdaq Composite index fell 1.90% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, rose 0.50%.^1,2,3

Tech Weighs On Stocks

Stocks struggled last week, beginning on a strong note ahead of key inflation data and selling off mid-week in response to a downgrade of the banking sector by credit rating agency Moody’s and news of a steep drop in China’s exports. Emblematic of the week, stocks jumped to big gains following Thursday’s better-than-expected inflation report, only to evaporate as bond yields rose amid an auction of 30-year Treasury bonds.

Stocks have had difficulty sustaining traction with the loss of the technology’s leadership, which has propelled gains this year. The combination of higher yields and earnings that failed to validate tech’s elevated valuations has dragged the sector and the larger market.

Subdued Inflation

July’s inflation data reflected only moderate price pressures. Consumer prices increased by a modest 0.2%, which aligned with market expectations. In comparison, the annual inflation rate came in at 3.2%, slightly below consensus estimates–though higher than June’s annual increase of 3.0%. Core CPI (excludes food and energy) was particularly encouraging, rising at the slowest rate since October 2021.⁴ 

Producer prices painted a more mixed picture, coming in a bit higher than expected, rising 0.3% versus the expected 0.2% increase, though the year-over-year increase was just 0.8%. Core producer prices’ 12-month increase of 2.4% tied for the lowest since January 2021.⁵

This Week: Key Economic Data

Tuesday: Retail Sales.

Wednesday: Housing Starts. Industrial Production. FOMC Minutes.

Thursday: Index of Leading Economic Indicators. Jobless Claims.

^{Source: Econoday, August 11, 2023
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Tuesday: The Home Depot, Inc. (HD)

Wednesday: Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO), Target Corporation (TGT), The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX)

Thursday: Walmart, Inc. (WMT), Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT), Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST)

Friday: Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW), Deere & Company (DE)

^{Source: Zacks, August 11, 2023
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

“When things go wrong, you’ll find they usually go on getting worse for some time; but when things once start going right they often go on getting better.”

– C.S. Lewis

Is Child Support Or Alimony Considered Taxable Income?

Child support payments are not taxable income for the recipient or tax-deductible for the payer. Therefore, you should not include child support payments when calculating gross income for tax purposes.

On the other hand, alimony payments may be taxable income for the recipient and tax-deductible for the payer depending on the specific divorce or separation instrument. For divorce or separation instruments executed on or before December 31, 2018, alimony payments are generally taxable income for the recipient and tax-deductible for the payer. However, for divorce or separation instruments executed after December 31, 2018, or those executed before that date but later modified to repeal the deduction for alimony expressly, the payments are neither taxable income nor tax-deductible. In either case, when determining gross income for tax purposes, alimony payments received should be included or excluded based on the specific instrument.

*This information is not intended to substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov⁶

3 Yoga Poses For Beginners

The first pose is Downward-Facing Dog, used in most yoga practices. In it, you stack your arms under your shoulders, and your bottom is in the air with your back legs straight. Your body is in the shape of an upside-down “V.”

The next is Crescent Lunge. Stand in a forward lunge with one foot in front and bent. Your back leg is straight. Now, straighten your arms and lift them over your head; you often see this pose used in yoga flow classes.

Last, we have the Triangle pose. Step your feet apart (wider than your shoulders). Then, hinge at your hip and lean over your front leg. Reach down with the same arm in front and rest it on the floor or a yoga block.

Tip adapted from SELF Magazine⁷

A man tells a friend that he married three women yesterday, which was legal. In fact, it was routine. How can he make such a statement? 

Last week’s riddle: What has three feet yet cannot run or walk?Answer: A yard.

Footnotes And Sources

^{1. The Wall Street Journal, August 11, 2023}

^{2. The Wall Street Journal, August 11, 2023}

^{3. The Wall Street Journal, August 11, 2023}

^{4. CNBC, August 10, 2023}

^{5. CNBC, August 11, 2023}

^{6. IRS.gov, November 1, 2022} 

^{7. SELF Magazine, April 24, 2023}

^{Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.}

^{The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.}

^{The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.}

^{The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.}

^{U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.}

^{International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.}

^{Please consult your financial professional for additional information.}

^{This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.}

^{Copyright 2023 FMG Suite.}

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.11%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 shed 2.27%. The Nasdaq Composite index lost 2.85% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, tumbled 3.27%.^1,2,3

Stocks Struggle

Stocks struggled as investor sentiment turned cautious amid rising bond yields. Markets were rattled initially by news that the Treasury raised its borrowing requirement for the third quarter by more than a quarter of a trillion dollars and on news that the Bank of Japan announced it would allow bond yields to rise after years of capping them. 

Rising yields continued to pressure stocks in the wake of a surprise rating downgrade of U.S. government debt by a major credit rating agency due to its belief in expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years.

Stocks rebounded Friday morning, rising on modest employment data only to reverse and add to the week’s losses.

Mixed Signals From The Labor Market

Fresh employment data last week gave some conflicting signals about the labor market. A new JOLTS (Job Openings and Turnover Survey) report showed a small decline in job openings and layoffs in June, leaving 1.6 job openings for each available worker.⁴ 

Automated Data Processing’s (ADP) employment report reflected strong private sector hiring with a 324,000 increase in jobs, exceeding the consensus forecast of a 175,000 gain.⁵

The government’s monthly employment report saw a cooling in hiring as employers added 187,000 jobs in July. This was slower than seen in the first six months but enough to shave the unemployment rate from 3.6% to 3.5%.⁶

This Week: Key Economic Data

Thursday: Consumer Price Index (CPI). Jobless Claims

Friday: Producer Price Index (PPI). Consumer Sentiment

^{Source: Econoday, August 4, 2023
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Monday: Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (SWKS)

Tuesday: Eli Lilly and Company (LLY), Duke Energy Corporation (DUK), United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS), ONEOK, Inc. (OKE)

Wednesday: The Walt Disney Company (DIS)

^{Source: Zacks, August 4, 2023
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

“A person is a person because he recognizes others as persons.”

– Desmond Tutu

Add Social Security Numbers Of Your Dependents On Your Return

On your tax return, add the Social Security Numbers for your children and other dependents. Otherwise, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) might deny any dependent credits you might be due, including the Child Tax Credit.

If you don’t have the number you need by the tax filing deadline, the IRS suggests filing for an extension rather than sending in a return without a Social Security number.

*This information is not intended to substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov⁷

4 Potential Health Benefits Of Coffee

Coffee may help you live longer: Recent studies found that coffee drinkers are less likely to die from certain causes of death, including coronary heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and kidney disease.

Your liver may thank you: Research shows that coffee drinkers are more likely to have liver enzyme levels within a healthy range than people who don’t drink coffee.

You may decrease your risk of getting Alzheimer’s disease: The caffeine in two cups of coffee may protect against developing the condition. Researchers found that women aged 65 and older who drank two to three cups of coffee a day were less likely to develop dementia in general.

Your body may process glucose better: Studies have found that people who drink more coffee are less likely to have type 2 diabetes.

Tip adapted from John Hopkins Medicine⁸

What has three feet yet cannot run or walk?

Last week’s riddle: This word signifies a gap between hills or mountain ranges. Yet remove just one letter, and it signifies a gap between buildings. What is this six-letter word? Answer: The word valley, which becomes alley with a letter subtracted.

Amber Fort, Jaipur, India

Footnotes And Sources

^{1. The Wall Street Journal, August 4, 2023}

^{2. The Wall Street Journal, August 4, 2023}

^{3. The Wall Street Journal, August 4, 2023}

^{4. CNBC, August 1, 2023}

^{5. CNBC, August 2, 2023}

^{6. The Wall Street Journal, August 4, 2023}

^{7. IRS.gov, October 7, 2022}

^{8. John Hopkins Medicine, April 24, 2023}

^{The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.}

^{The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.}

^{The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.}

^{U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.}

^{International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.}

^{Please consult your financial professional for additional information.}

^{This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.}

^{Copyright 2023 FMG Suite.}

A Friday surge pushed stocks solidly into positive territory last week, ignited by cooling in an inflation gauge closely tracked by the Federal Reserve.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.66%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 climbed 1.01%. The Nasdaq Composite index rose 2.02% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, gained 0.74%.^1,2,3

Stocks Pop

Stocks were flat for much of last week amid a batch of new earnings, a 0.25% interest rate hike, and strong economic data. After beginning with gains, stocks lost momentum following the Fed’s expected rate-hike announcement on Wednesday. A bounce on Thursday sparked by a positive mega-cap tech company earnings reversed after bond yields increased. 

Stocks recovered strongly Friday on the release of the personal consumption expenditures price index, which fell to its lowest level in two years.⁴

Much of the market action was related to earnings results. With 44% of S&P 500 companies reporting, 78% have exceeded Wall Street forecasts.⁵

Recession Deferred

Expectations of a recession were high coming into 2023. Last week may have erased this recession narrative overhang. 

Second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data released last week was one big reason why. Economic activity expanded by 2.4%, which was above the forecast of two percent and represented an acceleration from its first quarter GDP of 2.0%. Consumer spending was a major driver of that expansion, rising 1.6%.⁶

Joining the recession-deferred camp this week was Fed Chair Powell, who stated that the Fed was no longer forecasting a recession.

This Week: Key Economic Data

Tuesday: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).

Wednesday: Automated Data Processing (ADP) Employment Report.

Thursday: Jobless Claims. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Index. 

Friday: Employment Situation.

^{Source: Econoday, July 28, 2023
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Monday: Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON)

Tuesday: Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD), Pfizer, Inc. (PFE), Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT), Starbucks Corporation (SBUX), Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK), Prudential Financial, Inc. (PRU), Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK)

Wednesday: CVS Health Corporation (CVS), Qualcomm, Inc. (QCOM), PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL), Shopify, Inc. (SHOP), Albemarle Corporation (ALB), Emerson Electric Co. (EMR), Humana, Inc. (HUM)

Thursday: Apple, Inc. (AAPL), Block, Inc. (SQ), Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD), Amgen, Inc. (AMGN), Cigna Group (CI), Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY), Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT), ConocoPhillips (COP), Booking Holdings, Inc. (BKNG), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (REGN)

Friday: EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG)

^{Source: Zacks, July 28, 2023
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

“I have found the paradox that if I love until it hurts, then there is no hurt, but only more love.”

– Mother Teresa

Who Qualifies For The Child And Dependent Care Tax Credit?

Let’s outline who the Internal Revenue Service (I.R.S.) defines as a qualifying person under this care credit:

• A taxpayer’s dependent who is under the age of 13 when the care is provided.
• A taxpayer’s spouse who cannot care for themselves has lived with the taxpayer for more than half the year.

In addition to spouses and dependents, the credit may also cover someone who is mentally or physically unable to care for themselves and lives with the taxpayer for six months. This is the case if that person was the taxpayer’s dependent or if they would have been the taxpayer’s dependent except for one of the following:

• The qualifying person received a gross income of $4,400 or more.
  
• The qualifying person filed a joint return.
  
• If filing jointly, the taxpayer or spouse could be claimed as dependent on someone else’s return.

*This information is not intended to substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov⁷

Healthy Summer Tips

Staying healthy this summer will help you enjoy the season even more. Here are some of our favorite healthy summer tips:

• Stay safe in the sun, and always wear sunscreen. Use an SPF 30 or above with both UVA and UVB protection. If possible, hang out in shaded areas.
• Challenge your family and friends to some healthy competition, like a game of capture the flag, a scavenger hunt, volleyball, flag football, or dodgeball.
• Eat smart by indulging in a few of your favorite foods but still making healthy choices. Swap red meat out for chicken, choose fruits and veggies instead of chips, and eat sweets sparingly. Countless healthy barbecue and cookout recipes are delicious and will still satisfy that summer picnic spirit.

So what are you waiting for? Get out there and enjoy some summer swimming, games, or your favorite healthy snacks.

Tip adapted Prevent Cancer Foundation⁸

This word signifies a gap between hills or mountain ranges. Yet remove just one letter, and it signifies a gap between buildings. What is this six-letter word?

Last week’s riddle: Sometimes you pass me slowly, yet other times I fly by. Sometimes I slip away. Regardless of how slow or fast I am, one thing’s certain: when I’m gone, I’m gone for good. So what am I? Answer: Time.

Taktshang (Tiger’s Nest Monastery), Kingdom of Bhutan

Footnotes And Sources

^{1. The Wall Street Journal, July 28, 2023.}

^{2. The Wall Street Journal, July 28, 2023.}

^{3. The Wall Street Journal, July 28, 2023.}

^{4. CNBC, July 28, 2023.}

^{5. CNBC, July 27, 2023.}

^{6. CNBC, July 27, 2023.}

^{7. IRS.gov, May 1, 2023}

^{8. Prevent Cancer Foundation, April 24, 2023}

^{Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.}

^{The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.}

^{The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.}

^{The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.}

^{U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.}

^{International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.}

^{Please consult your financial professional for additional information.}

^{This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.}

^{Copyright 2023 FMG Suite.}