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Market Commentary | April 27th, 2026

by lportee53 | Apr 27, 2026 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

April 27th, 2026

Week in Review

Economic data released during the week pointed to continued momentum in consumer spending alongside expansionary business activity, while select labor and inventory data suggested pockets of emerging pressure. Overall conditions reflected steady growth with mixed cross‑currents beneath the surface.

Consumer spending data surprised to the upside. March retail sales increased 1.7% month-over-month, significantly above expectations and accelerated from the prior reading. Core retail sales also rose 1.9%, indicating broad‑based strength beyond volatile categories. The data suggest that household demand remains resilient despite elevated prices and restrictive financial conditions.

Business activity indicators remained in expansion. The April Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 54.0, improving from March and exceeding expectations, signaling an acceleration in factory activity. Services activity also expanded, with the Services PMI increasing to 51.3 from contractionary territory previously, pointing to a modest rebound in service‑sector demand.

Labor market data showed early signs of softening at the margin. Initial jobless claims increased to 214,000, modestly above expectations and prior levels, though still low by historical standards. The data suggests gradual cooling rather than material deterioration in labor conditions.

Energy market data was mixed. Crude oil inventories recorded a larger‑than‑expected build, reversing prior drawdowns and potentially reflecting softer near‑term demand or supply normalization. While volatile week‑to‑week, inventory levels remain an area to monitor for inflation and growth implications.

Taken together, the week’s data reinforced a backdrop of resilient consumer demand and ongoing economic expansion, tempered by early indications of labor market normalization and uneven sector‑level dynamics.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

The upcoming week will focus on inflation trends, growth momentum, and Federal Reserve policy signaling, with several high‑impact releases shaping views on economic resilience and disinflation progress.

Early‑week attention turns to the April Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. After recent strength in retail sales, the data will be watched for confirmation that consumer optimism and spending capacity remain intact despite elevated prices and restrictive financial conditions.

Midweek focus shifts to monetary policy. Durable goods orders will provide insight into business investment and demand for longer‑cycle goods. The Federal Reserve’s policy decision, statement, and press conference are expected to reaffirm a pause in rate changes, with markets closely assessing language around inflation risks, growth conditions, and the potential timing of future adjustments. Crude oil inventories will also be monitored as energy prices remain a key near‑term driver of inflation expectations.

Late‑week releases include several critical macro indicators. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure, will be central to assessing whether underlying price pressures continue to cool at a pace consistent with eventual policy easing. The advanced estimate of first‑quarter GDP will provide a broader read on economic momentum, while initial jobless claims offer an updated view of labor market conditions. Regional and national PMI data, including Chicago PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI, will further inform assessments of manufacturing‑sector expansion.

Overall, the week should clarify whether inflation moderation supports a potential policy shift later this year as growth and labor markets continue to normalize.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.0426-1463

Market Commentary | April 20th, 2026

by lportee53 | Apr 20, 2026 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

April 20th, 2026

Week in Review

This week’s macro releases pointed to a still-resilient economy with pockets of persistent inflation, particularly at the producer level, alongside continued softness in housing activity. The March Producer Price Index (PPI) surprised to the upside, with headline PPI rising 0.5% month-over-month and 4.0% year-over-year, while the core measure (excluding food, energy, and trade services) increased 0.2% on the month and 3.6% year-over-year. The strength was largely driven by a sharp rebound in goods prices, particularly energy, where gasoline prices surged. From a policy perspective, this reinforces the view that inflation risks, especially from commodities, have not fully dissipated. While core trends remain more contained, the headline acceleration complicates the disinflation narrative and is unlikely to shift the Federal Reserve toward a more accommodative stance in the near term.

In energy markets, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) crude oil inventories report showed a draw of 0.9 million barrels, with total inventories remaining slightly above seasonal norms. Gasoline inventories declined more materially, suggesting steady end-user demand. The combination of modest crude draws and tighter refined product inventories points to a balanced, but not overly tight, supply-demand backdrop. For markets, this dynamic is neutral to mildly supportive of oil prices and suggests that energy will remain a variable, but not dominant, driver of inflation expectations in the near term.

The housing sector continues to reflect the impact of elevated mortgage rates. Existing home sales declined 3.6% in March to an annualized pace of 3.98 million, marking another month of subdued transaction activity. While inventory has gradually improved, it remains constrained by the “lock-in” effect, as homeowners with lower-rate mortgages are reluctant to sell. At the same time, home prices continue to show modest year-over-year gains, underscoring the imbalance between supply and demand. From a macro standpoint, housing remains a drag on growth rather than a source of incremental momentum.

Overall, the week’s data reinforces a “stable but constrained” macro environment: inflation pressures are not fully resolved, energy remains a swing factor, and interest-rate-sensitive sectors continue to underperform.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

In the week ahead, market attention will turn to key indicators of consumer demand and business activity, which will help shape expectations around the durability of economic growth. On Tuesday, retail sales will provide a critical read on the health of the U.S. consumer. A firm print would suggest that spending remains resilient despite elevated borrowing costs, supporting the case for continued economic expansion and potentially delaying expectations for policy easing. Conversely, a softer outcome would indicate that higher rates are beginning to weigh more meaningfully on household demand, reinforcing a more cautious growth outlook.

On Thursday, the preliminary Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and Services PMI releases will offer timely insight into business conditions across the goods-producing and services sectors. The manufacturing survey will be closely watched for signs of stabilization following a prolonged period of weakness, while the services index will serve as a key gauge of underlying domestic demand and inflation persistence. Strength across both measures would reinforce the narrative of economic resilience, while any broad-based softening could signal emerging cracks in activity and support a shift toward a more dovish policy outlook.

Taken together, next week’s data will be central in assessing whether the economy continues to exhibit resilience under restrictive financial conditions or is beginning to transition toward a slower growth trajectory.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

Market Commentary | April 13th, 2026

by lportee53 | Apr 13, 2026 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

April 13th, 2026

Week in Review

Economic releases over the week reinforced the narrative of moderating growth amid persistent inflation pressures. In addition, the services sector showed continued cooling.

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for March declined to 54, down from 56.1 in February, highlighting a slowdown in the services sector. This decline suggested that momentum in services is easing, as elevated interest rates continue to weigh on activity. Measures of new orders and business activity moderated, suggesting that the recent slowdown may not be isolated.

Business investment indicators also reflected a more cautious environment. Durable goods orders declined by 1.4%, falling short of expectations. This reading underscores the hesitancy among firms to commit to large capital outlays. Orders excluding transportation provided little reassurance, as gains remained modest. Overall, capital spending decisions are being delayed as companies assess financing conditions and the broader growth outlook.

The March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes reinforced the Fed’s patient approach. While policymakers acknowledged early signs of moderation in growth, discussions underscored concern that inflation is not easing quickly enough to justify a shift toward loosening policy. The minutes reiterated that maintaining a restrictive posture remains appropriate until clearer progress is evident.

Inflation data remained the most consequential input for markets. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index increased by 0.4% month-over-month as underlying price pressures remained persistent. This firm monthly increase reinforced concerns that progress toward the Fed’s inflation target remains slow. Also, the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.3% on an annual basis, lower than the 3.4% expected. Meanwhile, Core CPI rose by only 0.2% on a monthly basis. For investors, this highlights that increases in inflation remain largely contained to energy as a result of the conflict in Iran.

In summary, the week’s data painted a picture of an economy losing some momentum but still operating with enough firmness to keep the Federal Reserve cautious.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

The coming week will keep inflation, growth, and policy expectations in focus, with several high-impact U.S. economic releases on the calendar.

The first release of the week will come with March existing home sales data. This will provide a read on how affordability constraints are shaping housing market activity. Monday’s report will be watched to see if demand is stabilizing as buyers adjust to higher financing costs, or whether rates continue to act as a material headwind.

A closely watched release will be the March Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which will be released on Tuesday. PPI readings will offer insight into cost pressures at the producer level and their potential to pass through to consumer prices. This is an area of heightened interest for investors as energy and import prices remain volatile.

Later in the week, regional manufacturing surveys including the Empire State and Philadelphia Fed Indexes will provide a read on business sentiment across key industrial regions. With recent national surveys reflecting mixed conditions, investors will look for confirmation whether weakness is localized or becoming more widespread.

Industrial production data will be released on Thursday. This indicator will help clarify if manufacturing softness is deepening or stabilizing. Also, weekly jobless claims will continue to function as a real-time check on labor market conditions. Overall, the upcoming data should help refine expectations around the economic outlook and the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

Market Commentary | April 6th, 2026

by lportee53 | Apr 6, 2026 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

April 6th, 2026

Week in Review

Economic data released last week reflected continued moderation across several areas of the U.S. economy, alongside persistent inflation pressures in select sectors. Business activity indicators were mixed, with some measures remaining in expansion while others pointed to slower momentum.

Manufacturing data continued to indicate expansion. The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increased to 52.7, remaining above the level that signals growth in factory activity. Pricing pressures within the manufacturing sector remained elevated, as the ISM Prices Paid index rose to 78.3, indicating ongoing increases in input costs. This data suggests that goods-related inflation pressures have not fully eased.

Outside of manufacturing, several services‑related and regional survey indicators showed signs of softer activity. Recent survey data indicate uneven growth conditions across sectors and regions, reflecting variation in underlying demand.

Labor market data remained relatively stable. ADP reported an increase of 62,000 private‑sector jobs in March. Initial jobless claims declined to 202,000, remaining near recent lows. The March employment report showed nonfarm payroll growth of 178,000, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%. Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% month-over-month, reflecting a slower pace of wage growth compared with earlier periods.

Consumer activity data indicated continued spending. February retail sales increased 0.6% month-over-month, suggesting ongoing household expenditures despite elevated prices and higher interest rates. Overall, recent data point to a backdrop of slowing economic growth, gradual changes in labor market conditions, and inflation pressures that remain uneven across the economy.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

The upcoming week will focus on inflation dynamics and policy signaling, as markets look for clarity on how persistent price pressures may influence the Federal Reserve’s path forward. The release of the ISM Non‑Manufacturing PMI will be closely watched as a follow‑up to recent signs of moderation in services activity, helping assess whether softness in the sector is stabilizing or becoming more pronounced. Durable goods orders will also draw attention as a gauge of business investment and demand for longer‑cycle goods amid higher borrowing costs.

Midweek attention will shift toward monetary policy and financial conditions. The release of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes should provide additional insight into how policymakers are balancing slowing growth against still‑elevated inflation pressures. Treasury auctions, particularly at longer maturities, will be monitored for signals around investor demand and rate sensitivity. Crude oil inventory data will remain relevant as energy prices continue to influence near‑term inflation expectations.

Looking ahead, inflation data remains central to the market outlook. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, and the next Consumer Price Index (CPI) release will be key inputs for assessing how quickly inflation is easing. With expectations for relatively firm readings, this data will play an important role in shaping views on how long the Fed may need to maintain a restrictive policy stance. Initial jobless claims will provide an additional check on labor market conditions. Collectively, upcoming releases should offer clearer insight into whether inflation is moderating slowly enough to keep policy restrictive, even as economic growth continues to cool.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

Market Commentary | March 30th, 2026

by lportee53 | Mar 30, 2026 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

March 30th, 2026

Week in Review

It was a short and relatively light week for economic data, but the releases still provided a useful snapshot of the economy. The main focus was the March flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data, where S&P Global Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4 from 51.6, coming in above consensus of 51.3. That suggested factory activity remained in expansion and held up better than expected. On the services side, Flash U.S. Services PMI slipped to 51.1 from 51.7, coming in below expectations of 51.5. The softer services reading pulled the Composite PMI down to 51.4 from 51.9, its lowest level in nearly a year. The overall takeaway was a mixed but still positive one: manufacturing showed resilience, while services lost some momentum, pointing to continued growth but with a less broad-based foundation.

Labor data was also steady. Initial jobless claims rose by 5,000 to 210,000 for the week, broadly in line with expectations, while continuing claims fell by 32,000 to 1.819 million. That combination still points to a labor market that is cooling only gradually. Claims remain low by historical standards, and the drop in continuing claims suggests layoffs are still fairly contained, even if hiring demand is not especially strong. In other words, the labor backdrop continues to look more like “low-hire, low-fire” than outright deterioration.

Energy was another important piece of the week’s macro story. U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose by 6.9 million barrels, a much larger build than markets had anticipated. Normally, a large inventory build would imply softer demand or stronger supply, but this release landed in the context of an oil market still shaped by broader geopolitical and supply concerns. As a result, the data provided some near-term offset but did not fully remove inflation concerns tied to elevated energy prices. That remains important for the broader macro picture, since higher oil prices can pressure both consumers and business input costs.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

The week ahead is more important, with several releases that should help clarify whether the economy is merely moderating or beginning to lose momentum more meaningfully. Chicago PMI will matter as an early read on business activity and whether the recent firmness in manufacturing is extending beyond the flash survey. Consumer Confidence will also be important because sentiment can influence spending behavior, especially when households are facing higher energy costs and broader uncertainty. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report should provide another read on whether labor demand is continuing to normalize in an orderly way or whether hiring appetite is fading more decisively.

Later in the week, Retail Sales will be watched closely as a direct gauge of consumer demand. Since household spending remains the main engine of U.S. growth, this release will help markets judge whether consumers are still absorbing higher costs or becoming more cautious. Finally, Nonfarm Payrolls will likely be the key macro release of the week. More than any single series, payrolls help frame the broader balance between labor-market resilience, income support, and the economy’s ability to keep expanding without a sharper slowdown. Altogether, next week’s data should provide a much clearer read on the durability of demand and the degree to which slowing growth is becoming more visible in the hard data.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

Market Commentary | March 23rd, 2026

by lportee53 | Mar 23, 2026 | Market Commentary, Weekly

Weekly Market Commentary

March 23rd, 2026

Iran War Update

The U.S./Israel conflict with Iran has continued to cause significant volatility within markets, and given this, we felt it was important to provide an additional update. Given the importance of the Middle East from an economic perspective, a prolonged conflict would pose significant economic damage to the global economy. Unfortunately, it appears that we are entering a heightened escalation phase, with reports of strikes on critical energy infrastructure and continued disruptions to shipping lanes, while the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly choked off.

While not a perfect measure of what is to come, prediction markets like Polymarket may offer a real-time snapshot of investment sentiment and collective expectations. As can be seen in the chart below, percentage odds of a durable ceasefire do not become likely before June, according to this system today.

Source: Polymarket (as of March 19, 2026)

Energy analysts broadly agree that sustained shipping disruptions or extensive damage to energy infrastructure would push energy prices, constrain discretionary demand, elevate input costs, and weigh on marginal growth. The global benchmark price for crude oil has risen to nearly $110 per barrel, nearly doubling since the start of the year. According to AAA, national gasoline prices have also risen from $2.82 at the start of the year to $3.91 as of March 19, 2026. The administration has attempted to counter some of these price increases with an announcement of 172 million barrels of oil to be released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) over the coming weeks and months. The market has largely looked through this announcement though, viewing the release as limited and insufficient to offset sustained supply disruptions. The U.S. (and other allies that have pledged releases) picture is complicated by the fact that the SPR was drawn down in the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine war and has not been meaningfully rebuilt in the years since that conflict began.

Source: Bloomberg (as of February 28, 2026)

How this war affects the economy in the coming quarters is still coming into view, but rates markets are beginning to question the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut rates in this environment. In fact, markets are pricing in a 27% chance of an interest rate hike, a scenario that was assigned a 0% probability just one week ago.

We have felt for some time that additional rate cuts are justified, so seeing the likelihood of additional rate cuts fade gives us pause. With that said, recent reviews of real-time estimates of GDP growth are still solidly positive, and as we mentioned in our 2026 Market Outlook the global economy enjoys several tailwinds that should keep it from slipping into recession even if important commodity prices remain elevated.

We should also note that wartime conditions necessitate significant government spending to be sustained, which also automatically boosts GDP as well. This conflict is no different, as it is being reported that the White House is requesting an additional $200 billion in funding related to war with Iran.

With respect to markets, it is also important to note that the U.S. is a modest net energy exporter, largely due to shale oil and natural gas production, which provides some insulation from global energy shocks. In contrast, European and Asian countries are highly exposed to a Middle East energy shock. The chart below lays out these relationships, and countries more situated towards the top right are more exposed. Notably, large economies like Germany, Japan, and Taiwan are among the more exposed. Interestingly, China is far more insulated than other large Asian countries.

Equity markets have reacted to these realities accordingly, as U.S. equities have outperformed international stocks by nearly 5% since the start of the war. With that said, international equities still lead U.S. stocks for the year-to-date period through March 19. This highlights the importance of maintaining diversification and sticking with a long-term investment strategy. This is especially important in the face of difficult headlines and elevated market volatility.

While we have not recommended any large changes to allocations as a result of recent market movements, we are watching the increased levels of market pessimism among equity investors to see if there is an opportunity. Historically, periods of geopolitical uncertainty have often created short‑term valuation dislocations rather than long‑term earnings impairment. Therefore, price declines across the major indexes would represent lower valuations, a welcome change in our view as equities had become overpriced in many cases.

We share our asset class recommendations and notes below, which will have more detail on these items in our upcoming quarterly investment update report. As always, we hope this information is helpful, and please contact the Cambridge Due Diligence Team (duediligence@cir2.com) at 800-777-6080 for questions.

Equities	Current Weighting	Outlook
U.S. Large Cap	Neutral	Excellent fundamental outlook and technical backdrop given large ongoing buybacks. High concentration of the largest names and high valuations keep us neutral on this asset class. We favor high quality, defensive investments and certain sectors like healthcare and financial stocks.
U.S. Mid and Small Cap	Neutral	Modest valuations and falling interest rates should provide a tailwind to investors here. We currently recommend a neutral weight but might look to change to overweight as the year progresses.
EAFE	Neutral	Japanese equities look interesting, and the currency diversification into Yen and Euros could still provide a tailwind. Weak European growth and worrisome trends in sovereign yields keep us neutral.
EM	Neutral	Some of the lowest equity market valuations available to investors. There are still economic risks in China that keep us neutral here, as it represents the largest country weight in the index.

Duration	Current Weighting	Outlook
Treasuries	Underweight	While rates are solidly positive across the yield curve, huge potential net new Treasury supply and continuing refinancing needs keep us modestly short duration relative to benchmark expressed primarily through a Treasury underweight.
IG Corporates	Underweight	Narrow spreads keep us underweight this segment despite our economic outlook. If spreads normalize we will look to upgrade our outlook.
Agency Mortgages	Overweight	Wide spreads relative to both Treasuries and high-quality corporate bonds make this our preferred way to obtain duration exposure. We expect technical buying pressure to continue into 2026 as institutional investors rebuild allocations here.
Munis	Neutral	Ratios of yields between AAA munis and Treasuries have normalized. There is also only modest amounts of spread to be gained by reducing the quality profile of a muni portfolio today. Term spreads, the difference between long and short-term municipal bonds, are solid, providing investors an opportunity barbell exposures to produce additional yield.

Credit	Current Weighting	Outlook
High Yield	Neutral	Fundamental changes to the index with respect to quality composition and duration, along with our economic outlook means we expect defaults to remain subdued. Relatively narrow spreads keep us from an overweight recommendation in this asset class.
Leveraged Loans	Underweight	Years of poor underwriting standards along with potential technical selling pressure from retail investors makes us maintain an underweight recommendation here despite our economic outlook.
Structured Credit	Overweight	Structured credit remains our favored way to gain credit exposure, as this segment offers solid yields with modest credit and duration risk. Our favorite segments within this asset class include Non-Agency RMBS and CMBS, as the collateral values for both are likely to rise in 2026, improving their respective credit quality.

Alternatives	Current Weighting	Outlook
Private Equity	Overweight	Reinvigorated capital markets should promote portfolio realizations and returns. Our economic outlook, combined with lower borrowing costs leads us to believe these asset classes should provide total return that outperforms public markets. Manager selection is key here.
Private Debt	Neutral	We have seen some concerning defaults in this arena, along with some concern around underwriting standards. However, we still think this asset class will deliver solid liquid returns even as there has been softness in broader bond markets. We expect the private debt market to continue to grow. Like private equity, manager selection is key.

Week in Review

Over the course of the week, markets digested a variety of U.S. economic releases as well as the Federal Reserve meeting. Investors focused on the durability of economic growth amid persistent inflation risks.

The focal point of the week was the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where the Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. However, the tone of the meeting was more hawkish and both headline and core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation forecasts were raised to 2.7%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that inflation progress has been slower than expected among elevated uncertainty stemming from energy prices and geopolitical tensions.

The February Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.7% month-over-month, well above consensus expectations and accelerating from January’s 0.5% increase. For investors, this reinforced concerns that inflation pressures remain persistent at the wholesale level. Core inflation also remained firm, rising by 0.5% over the month. This is closely watched by policymakers as an indicator of more durable inflation pressures that may eventually pass through to consumer prices.

Manufacturing data showed renewed momentum. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index rose to 18.1, well above expectations. This gain was driven by a sharp rebound in shipments, with new orders easing but remaining positive. Forward-looking manufacturing expectations remain elevated, highlighting ongoing optimism even as cost pressures and global uncertainties increase.

Housing data provided mixed signals. Residential construction improved as housing starts rebounded, driven primarily by an increase in multifamily projects. On the other hand, single-family construction remained subdued due to ongoing affordability constraints and elevated mortgage rates. New home sales also fell sharply to an annualized pace of 587,000 units, the lowest level in more than three years. This slowdown reflects the continued strain on housing demand due to affordability challenges and volatile mortgage rates.

Labor market data showed signs of stabilization. Weekly initial jobless claims fell to 205,000, the lowest reading since January. This supports the view of a labor market characterized by limited hiring and limited layoffs. Continuing claims remain subdued, indicating that layoffs remain contained even as hiring momentum eases.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

The upcoming week will include multiple economic releases that will refine investor expectations for growth, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy.

Tuesday will include the release of both the U.S. Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), offering an early read on economic activity over March. The Manufacturing PMI will be watched for confirmation that strength in regional factory surveys is translating to the national level. The Services PMI will be monitored for signs that consumer demand remains intact despite elevated prices and borrowing costs.

On Wednesday, the February import and export price indexes will be watched for signals on pipeline inflation. Investors will be assessing the pass-through of higher energy costs, tariffs, and currency effects into domestic pricing. Firm readings could reinforce recent economic readings reflecting persistent cost pressures.

On Thursday, initial and continuing jobless claims will provide a signal on employment stability. Low claims could reinforce the view that layoffs remain contained, even as firms stay cautious about adding new workers.

The week will conclude with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, including inflation expectations. This survey will be closely watched by investors and policymakers, as elevated expectations could support the Federal Reserve’s cautious, data-driven policy stance.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

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