lportee53 | Elsass Financial Group

Market Commentary | May 18th, 2026

by lportee53 | May 18, 2026 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

May 18th, 2026

Week in Review

Last week was centered on inflation and consumer demand, with housing and labor data helping round out the broader economic picture.

Inflation data leaned to the upside overall, particularly at the core and producer levels. Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% month-over-month in April, above expectations of 0.3% and accelerating from the prior 0.2%, indicating underlying inflation remains sticky. Headline CPI increased 0.6%, in line with expectations but below the prior 0.9%, while year-over-year CPI rose to 3.8% versus 3.7% expected. Progress toward the Fed’s target continues, though at an uneven pace. More notably, the Producer Price Index (PPI) surprised significantly to the upside at 1.4% month-over-month versus a 0.5% forecast, pointing to building upstream cost pressures that could feed into future consumer prices.

Consumer demand remained resilient but showed signs of normalization. Retail sales rose 0.5% month-over-month, matching expectations but slowing from the prior 1.6%, while core retail sales increased 0.7%, also in line but well below the prior 1.9%. The data suggest consumers are still spending, though momentum has moderated from earlier strength.

Elsewhere, labor and housing data pointed to stability with some modest softening at the margins. Initial jobless claims came in at 211,000 versus 205,000 expected, ticking up from 199,000 previously but still within a stable range. Existing home sales registered at 4.02 million, slightly below expectations (4.05 million) and slightly above the prior 4.01 million, indicating a housing market that remains constrained yet steady.

Finally, rates and energy dynamics continued to reflect supply-side pressures. Treasury auctions cleared at higher yields, with the 10-year at 4.468% and the 30-year at 5.046%, while crude inventories declined by 4.3 million barrels, reinforcing tightening supply conditions and supporting near-term energy price pressures.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

The upcoming week will shift focus toward early reads on May activity, labor conditions, and Fed communication, offering incremental clarity on whether growth remains resilient while policy expectations continue to evolve. Recent data has pointed to a mixed backdrop, with manufacturing showing relative strength while services activity remains modest, leaving markets focused on confirming whether growth is gradually cooling but still positive overall.

The week picks up on Wednesday with crude oil inventories, which will be closely watched following last week’s roughly 4.3-million-barrel draw. Continued tightening would reinforce supply-side pressures and could contribute to sustained firmness in energy prices. Later in the day, the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes will provide additional insight into how policymakers are interpreting recent inflation data and balancing risks to growth. This should help refine expectations around the Fed’s policy path, particularly whether a higher-for-longer stance remains intact.

Attention then turns to Thursday, where the data flow broadens across labor, regional manufacturing, and forward-looking activity indicators. Initial jobless claims are expected near 210,000, a slight improvement from the prior 211,000 reading, and will serve as a timely gauge of labor market conditions. At the same time, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to decline to 17.9 from 26.7, pointing to some moderation while still indicating expansion. Preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data will then provide an early look at May momentum, with manufacturing easing slightly and services holding near modest expansion levels, helping determine whether growth remains intact but gradually cooling.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.0526-1825

Market Commentary | May 11th, 2026

by lportee53 | May 11, 2026 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

May 11th, 2026

Week in Review

Last week was a busy one for economic data, with key reports across labor, housing, and both business and consumer sentiment, adding important context and nuance to an increasingly complex economic backdrop.

Labor: Moving Toward Equilibrium

Labor market data pointed toward a more balanced state between supply and demand. The March Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report came in largely in line with expectations and slightly below the prior month, while the quits rate held steady, suggesting worker mobility has stabilized rather than cooled materially.

Claims data reinforced this equilibrium narrative. Continuing claims have remained range bound between roughly 1.75 million and 1.85 million, indicating that while layoffs are occurring, displaced workers are still able to find employment without extended delays. Initial claims showed modest week-to-week volatility but remain contained overall.

Productivity and labor cost data added a constructive dimension. Nonfarm productivity rose modestly in the first quarter, while unit labor costs slowed meaningfully to 2.3 percent from the prior quarter. This suggests firms are becoming more efficient while facing less cost pressure, a dynamic consistent with easing inflation.

Friday’s employment report surprised to the upside, with payrolls rising 115,000 versus a 55,000 consensus and unemployment holding at 4.3 percent. However, participation edged lower and U6 unemployment ticked higher, pointing to some softening at the margins despite solid headline gains.

Business Activity and Sentiment: Expansion Without Conviction

Business activity remained in expansion but continued to fall short of expectations. For example, month-over-month S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) improved to 51.7 from 50.3, but the recovery in activity remains gradual rather than sharp.

The services sector echoed this trend. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI declined modestly to 53.6, with softer new orders signaling some cooling in demand. Across PMI measures, activity is improving directionally, but expectations outpaced the pace of recovery.

Consumer sentiment diverged notably. The University of Michigan index fell to 48.2, near cyclical lows, reflecting continued pressure from elevated prices and weak purchasing power. The gap between stable business activity and cautious consumers remains a key risk to monitor.

Housing and Construction: Stabilization Emerging

Housing data pointed to gradual improvement. New home sales for February and March strengthened, indicating demand for large purchases remains intact despite higher rates.

Construction spending also rebounded, improving from negative 1.9 percent in January to positive 0.6 percent in March. While building permits softened, the broader trend suggests both private and public investment are stabilizing after early year weakness.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

The week ahead will bring another full slate of economic data, with key reports on inflation, consumer spending, and housing expected to provide further clarity on price pressures and the durability of underlying demand.

Inflation, Demand, and Energy Signals

The upcoming week will center on inflation dynamics and the durability of consumer demand, with several key reports offering incremental insight into both price pressures and growth.

The primary focus will be Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), where markets will look beyond the headline numbers to assess the breadth and persistence of underlying inflation. Particular attention will be paid to whether higher energy prices are beginning to feed into core components, especially services, and how large the divergence remains between headline and core measures.

Core retail sales will provide a timely read on the consumer. Following weak sentiment data, markets will be watching closely for signs that spending is beginning to soften, or whether consumption remains resilient despite continued pressure on purchasing power.

In housing, existing home sales will act as a confirmation signal for the recent strength in new home sales, helping determine whether demand is broadening across the market or remains concentrated in new construction.

Finally, the IEA and OPEC monthly reports will take on added importance given ongoing geopolitical tensions. These releases will provide critical context on global supply constraints, production outlooks, and inventory trends, all of which feed directly into energy prices and, by extension, the near-term inflation outlook.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.0526-1719

Market Commentary | May 4th, 2026

by lportee53 | May 4, 2026 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

May 4th, 2026

Week in Review

Economic data released during the week pointed to continued economic expansion, supported by resilient consumer demand and steady business activity, alongside mixed signals on inflation and labor market conditions.

Consumer sentiment improved modestly. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index edged up to 92.8 in April from 92.2 in March, suggesting households remain relatively resilient despite elevated prices and borrowing costs. Improved expectations offset slightly weaker assessments of current conditions, reflecting a consumer that remains resilient but increasingly fragile.

Business investment data indicated stability rather than renewed acceleration. March durable goods orders increased 0.8% month-over-month, rebounding from February’s decline. Orders excluding transportation rose 0.9%, while core capital goods orders excluding aircraft climbed 3.3%, highlighting pockets of resilience in equipment spending despite restrictive financial conditions.

Monetary policy developments were broadly in line with expectations. The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged in a range of 3.50%–3.75%, reaffirming a data‑dependent stance. Policymakers cited solid economic activity but emphasized that inflation remains above target, reinforcing a cautious approach toward any future policy adjustments.

Inflation data showed incremental progress but remained elevated. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rose 0.3% in March, bringing the year‑over‑year inflation rate to 3.2%. While the monthly pace was consistent with gradual moderation, the level of inflation continues to argue for patience from policymakers.

Growth indicators remained constructive. The advance estimate of first‑quarter GDP showed the economy expanded at a 2.0% annualized rate, an improvement from the prior quarter, though reflecting some moderation in consumer spending momentum.

Manufacturing data were mixed. The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) remained expansionary at 52.7 in April, with strength in new orders and production offset by continued weakness in employment and elevated input costs. In contrast, the Chicago PMI declined to 49.2, falling back into contraction territory and highlighting uneven momentum across the sector.

Overall, the week’s data reflect steady growth and resilient demand, alongside persistent inflation and uneven sector dynamics.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

Markets head into the first full week of May focused on the resilience of the U.S. economy, with services activity and labor data taking center stage.

The ISM Services PMI will be closely watched following prior signs of stabilization in the services sector. A continued expansionary print would reinforce the narrative that growth remains solid despite tighter financial conditions, while any downside surprise could reignite concerns about slowing demand.

Labor market signals will also be critical. Weekly initial jobless claims will be monitored for evidence that recent historically low readings persist or begin to move higher. While claims remain low by historical standards, even modest changes are closely scrutinized for signals of gradual labor market cooling.

Midweek releases will provide insight into consumer behavior and balance sheet strength. Consumer credit data will be used to assess whether household spending remains supported by income growth or is becoming increasingly reliant on borrowing amid elevated interest rates. Meanwhile, wholesale inventory data will help refine expectations for second quarter GDP, following recent volatility in inventory accumulation.

Overall, the week’s data should help clarify whether the economy continues to navigate a soft normalization path, with steady demand, gradual easing in labor market tightness, and contained inflation pressures. These releases will contribute to broader assessments of growth resilience and the outlook for policy flexibility later in the year.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.0526-1623

Market Commentary | April 27th, 2026

by lportee53 | Apr 27, 2026 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

April 27th, 2026

Week in Review

Economic data released during the week pointed to continued momentum in consumer spending alongside expansionary business activity, while select labor and inventory data suggested pockets of emerging pressure. Overall conditions reflected steady growth with mixed cross‑currents beneath the surface.

Consumer spending data surprised to the upside. March retail sales increased 1.7% month-over-month, significantly above expectations and accelerated from the prior reading. Core retail sales also rose 1.9%, indicating broad‑based strength beyond volatile categories. The data suggest that household demand remains resilient despite elevated prices and restrictive financial conditions.

Business activity indicators remained in expansion. The April Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 54.0, improving from March and exceeding expectations, signaling an acceleration in factory activity. Services activity also expanded, with the Services PMI increasing to 51.3 from contractionary territory previously, pointing to a modest rebound in service‑sector demand.

Labor market data showed early signs of softening at the margin. Initial jobless claims increased to 214,000, modestly above expectations and prior levels, though still low by historical standards. The data suggests gradual cooling rather than material deterioration in labor conditions.

Energy market data was mixed. Crude oil inventories recorded a larger‑than‑expected build, reversing prior drawdowns and potentially reflecting softer near‑term demand or supply normalization. While volatile week‑to‑week, inventory levels remain an area to monitor for inflation and growth implications.

Taken together, the week’s data reinforced a backdrop of resilient consumer demand and ongoing economic expansion, tempered by early indications of labor market normalization and uneven sector‑level dynamics.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

The upcoming week will focus on inflation trends, growth momentum, and Federal Reserve policy signaling, with several high‑impact releases shaping views on economic resilience and disinflation progress.

Early‑week attention turns to the April Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. After recent strength in retail sales, the data will be watched for confirmation that consumer optimism and spending capacity remain intact despite elevated prices and restrictive financial conditions.

Midweek focus shifts to monetary policy. Durable goods orders will provide insight into business investment and demand for longer‑cycle goods. The Federal Reserve’s policy decision, statement, and press conference are expected to reaffirm a pause in rate changes, with markets closely assessing language around inflation risks, growth conditions, and the potential timing of future adjustments. Crude oil inventories will also be monitored as energy prices remain a key near‑term driver of inflation expectations.

Late‑week releases include several critical macro indicators. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure, will be central to assessing whether underlying price pressures continue to cool at a pace consistent with eventual policy easing. The advanced estimate of first‑quarter GDP will provide a broader read on economic momentum, while initial jobless claims offer an updated view of labor market conditions. Regional and national PMI data, including Chicago PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI, will further inform assessments of manufacturing‑sector expansion.

Overall, the week should clarify whether inflation moderation supports a potential policy shift later this year as growth and labor markets continue to normalize.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.0426-1463

Market Commentary | April 20th, 2026

by lportee53 | Apr 20, 2026 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

April 20th, 2026

Week in Review

This week’s macro releases pointed to a still-resilient economy with pockets of persistent inflation, particularly at the producer level, alongside continued softness in housing activity. The March Producer Price Index (PPI) surprised to the upside, with headline PPI rising 0.5% month-over-month and 4.0% year-over-year, while the core measure (excluding food, energy, and trade services) increased 0.2% on the month and 3.6% year-over-year. The strength was largely driven by a sharp rebound in goods prices, particularly energy, where gasoline prices surged. From a policy perspective, this reinforces the view that inflation risks, especially from commodities, have not fully dissipated. While core trends remain more contained, the headline acceleration complicates the disinflation narrative and is unlikely to shift the Federal Reserve toward a more accommodative stance in the near term.

In energy markets, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) crude oil inventories report showed a draw of 0.9 million barrels, with total inventories remaining slightly above seasonal norms. Gasoline inventories declined more materially, suggesting steady end-user demand. The combination of modest crude draws and tighter refined product inventories points to a balanced, but not overly tight, supply-demand backdrop. For markets, this dynamic is neutral to mildly supportive of oil prices and suggests that energy will remain a variable, but not dominant, driver of inflation expectations in the near term.

The housing sector continues to reflect the impact of elevated mortgage rates. Existing home sales declined 3.6% in March to an annualized pace of 3.98 million, marking another month of subdued transaction activity. While inventory has gradually improved, it remains constrained by the “lock-in” effect, as homeowners with lower-rate mortgages are reluctant to sell. At the same time, home prices continue to show modest year-over-year gains, underscoring the imbalance between supply and demand. From a macro standpoint, housing remains a drag on growth rather than a source of incremental momentum.

Overall, the week’s data reinforces a “stable but constrained” macro environment: inflation pressures are not fully resolved, energy remains a swing factor, and interest-rate-sensitive sectors continue to underperform.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

In the week ahead, market attention will turn to key indicators of consumer demand and business activity, which will help shape expectations around the durability of economic growth. On Tuesday, retail sales will provide a critical read on the health of the U.S. consumer. A firm print would suggest that spending remains resilient despite elevated borrowing costs, supporting the case for continued economic expansion and potentially delaying expectations for policy easing. Conversely, a softer outcome would indicate that higher rates are beginning to weigh more meaningfully on household demand, reinforcing a more cautious growth outlook.

On Thursday, the preliminary Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and Services PMI releases will offer timely insight into business conditions across the goods-producing and services sectors. The manufacturing survey will be closely watched for signs of stabilization following a prolonged period of weakness, while the services index will serve as a key gauge of underlying domestic demand and inflation persistence. Strength across both measures would reinforce the narrative of economic resilience, while any broad-based softening could signal emerging cracks in activity and support a shift toward a more dovish policy outlook.

Taken together, next week’s data will be central in assessing whether the economy continues to exhibit resilience under restrictive financial conditions or is beginning to transition toward a slower growth trajectory.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.0426-1463