Market Commentary | July 13th, 2026

Market Commentary | July 13th, 2026

by | Jul 13, 2026 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

July 13th, 2026

Week in Review

The week of July 6, 2026, was marked by several U.S. economic releases that pointed to continued economic resilience, while also showing pockets of moderation across services activity, housing, and energy inventories. Investors focused on service-sector data, labor market conditions, Treasury auctions, and Federal Reserve communications for additional insight into the broader economic backdrop.

Service-sector activity remained in expansion territory, although June readings came in slightly below expectations. The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) registered 51.2 compared to expectations of 51.3, while the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.0 versus expectations of 54.2. While both readings modestly missed consensus, levels above 50 continue to indicate expansion. Inflation pressures within the services sector remained notable, as the ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Index decreased to 67.7, yet remained slightly above expectations of 67.5.

Other economic data was mixed. Initial jobless claims declined to 215,000, below expectations of 218,000, suggesting that labor market conditions remained relatively firm during the week. Existing home sales, however, came in below expectations at 4.09 million versus forecasts of 4.19 million, indicating continued softness in housing activity. Crude oil inventories also increased by 2.998 million barrels, compared to expectations for a 1.900-million-barrel drawdown.

The Federal Reserve remained in focus through the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes and the Fed Monetary Policy Report. Treasury market activity included a 10-Year Note auction at 4.580% and a 30-Year Bond auction at 5.058%. Overall, the week’s data supported the view that the U.S. economy remains stable, though persistent services inflation and uneven housing data continue to warrant monitoring.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

The upcoming week should provide investors with a clearer picture of whether the U.S. economy can maintain its recent momentum. Inflation data will be the primary focus, as both consumer and producer price reports will help determine whether pricing pressures are continuing to ease or remain stubborn enough to keep the Federal Reserve cautious on future rate decisions.

Beyond inflation, several reports will offer insight into the health of the consumer, which remains the key driver of economic growth. Retail sales data will help gauge whether households continue to spend despite a higher interest rate environment or are becoming more selective with discretionary purchases. At the same time, weekly jobless claims will provide an updated view of labor market conditions and whether employment trends remain supportive of consumer demand.

Investors will also be monitoring crude oil inventory data for signals on energy demand and potential impacts on fuel prices, while the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will offer another look at business activity and economic momentum.

Overall, this week’s releases should help answer three key questions: Is inflation continuing to cool, are consumers still willing to spend, and does economic growth remain resilient as the second half of the year begins? Those answers will likely play an important role in shaping market expectations for Federal Reserve policy and the broader economic outlook.

Economic Indicators:

  1. CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  2. Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  3. PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  4. Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  5. PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  6. Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  7. Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
  8. Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
  9. Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
  10. Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
  11. Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
  12. ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
  13. ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
  14. Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
  15. Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
  16. Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
  17. New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
  18. SA: Seasonally adjusted.
  19. SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

  1. S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
  2. Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
  3. NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
  4. Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
  5. Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
  6. Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
  7. Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
  8. MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
  9. MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
  10. VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
  11. FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
  12. S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
  13. 3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
  14. 10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
  15. 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
  16. WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
  17. Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
  18. Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.

Market Commentary | July 6th, 2026

Market Commentary | July 6th, 2026

by | Jul 6, 2026 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

July 6th, 2026

Week in Review

Last week’s economic releases reinforced a familiar theme: growth continues, but momentum is becoming increasingly mixed beneath the surface. Labor market indicators remained relatively resilient, manufacturing activity stayed in expansion, and consumer sentiment showed signs of stabilization despite lingering caution.

Labor Market: Resilient but Losing Momentum

Labor market data delivered a mixed message. The May Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report showed job openings unexpectedly increased and came in above both expectations and the prior month’s reading, suggesting demand for labor remained healthy heading into June.

However, June’s employment report pointed to slower hiring activity. Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 57,000 jobs, well below expectations and a notable step down from the prior month’s revised gain. The softer payroll figure may indicate employers are becoming more cautious as economic uncertainty persists.

At the same time, unemployment measures improved modestly. The headline unemployment rate declined from 4.3 percent to 4.2 percent, while the broader U6 measure fell from 8.1 percent to 7.9 percent. Taken together, the data suggest labor market conditions remain stable, though evidence of renewed acceleration remains limited.

Manufacturing: Expansion Continues but Momentum Softens

Manufacturing data continued to point toward expansion but with signs of moderation. The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) exceeded expectations at 56.7, though it fell meaningfully from May’s strong reading of 62.7, suggesting business activity remains healthy but has cooled from recent highs.

National surveys echoed a similar theme. The final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was revised lower from its preliminary estimate, while the ISM Manufacturing survey showed modest softening in new orders. Even so, manufacturing employment improved from 48.6 to 49.7, moving closer to neutral, and suggesting firms may be becoming less cautious regarding hiring plans.

One encouraging development came from the ISM prices index, which fell sharply from 82.1 to 73.0 and came in below expectations. While still elevated, the decline suggests manufacturing-related price pressures eased during the month.

Consumer Sentiment: Stability Emerging

Consumer confidence came in below expectations but improved modestly from the prior month’s revised level. While households remain cautious, sentiment has largely moved sideways in recent months rather than continuing to deteriorate.

The report reflects an economy where consumers remain concerned about affordability and uncertainty yet have not become materially more pessimistic. For now, stabilization appears to be the more meaningful trend than either improvement or decline.

 

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

This week’s calendar will provide investors with additional insight into the health of the services sector, inflation expectations, and broader economic activity. Following last week’s mixed labor market data, markets will be looking for evidence as to whether growth is merely moderating or beginning to slow more meaningfully.

Services Sector: Can Growth Hold Up?

Monday’s S&P Global Services PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will offer an important update on the largest segment of the U.S. economy. Given the services sector’s outsized contribution to economic activity, investors will be watching closely to see whether business sentiment and demand remain resilient.

Particular attention will be paid to the employment and prices subindexes. With June payroll growth coming in below expectations, markets will be looking for signs that hiring demand remains intact. At the same time, investors will monitor pricing activity to determine whether recent improvements in manufacturing-related inflation pressures are beginning to spread more broadly throughout the economy.

Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy

The New York Fed’s Consumer Inflation Expectations Survey on Tuesday will provide insight into how households view the future path of inflation. While temporary supply disruptions can impact prices in the short term, longer-term inflation expectations often play a critical role in determining whether those pressures become more persistent.

Markets will also receive the minutes from the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. While the economic data discussed during the meeting is now somewhat dated, investors will look for additional insight into how committee members assessed the balance between inflation risks and labor market conditions, as well as any signs of emerging disagreement regarding the future path of monetary policy.

Housing and Energy

Existing home sales will provide an early look at housing market activity during June and may offer additional clues regarding consumer confidence in making long-term financial commitments.

Markets will also monitor the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Companies (OPEC) meeting and the IEA Monthly Oil Market Report for updates on global supply conditions. Following recent geopolitical tensions and concerns surrounding energy-driven inflation, investors will be watching for signs that oil markets are stabilizing and that supply risks are beginning to ease.

Disclosures and Definitions

Economic Indicators:

  1. CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  2. Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  3. PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  4. Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  5. PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  6. Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  7. Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
  8. Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
  9. Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
  10. Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
  11. Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
  12. ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
  13. ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
  14. Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
  15. Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
  16. Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
  17. New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
  18. SA: Seasonally adjusted.
  19. SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

  1. S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
  2. Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
  3. NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
  4. Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
  5. Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
  6. Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
  7. Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
  8. MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
  9. MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
  10. VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
  11. FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
  12. S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
  13. 3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
  14. 10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
  15. 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
  16. WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
  17. Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
  18. Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.0726-2498

Market Commentary | June 29th, 2026

Market Commentary | June 29th, 2026

by | Jun 29, 2026 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

June 29th, 2026

Week in Review

The week’s data reinforced a backdrop of steady but uneven economic growth, though several areas continue to show signs of moderation under tighter financial conditions.

Preliminary June Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data pointed to stronger-than-expected business activity. Manufacturing PMI improved to 55.7 from the prior reading of 55.1, exceeding expectations and signaling continued strength in the industrial side of the economy. Services PMI came in at 51.3, slightly above expectations, reflecting modest expansion. Overall growth remains intact based on this data, though stronger manufacturing activity alongside slower services growth highlights an uneven expansion.

Housing data showed renewed softness. New home sales for May declined to 580,000 from 626,000 in April and fell well short of expectations. The decline reflects ongoing affordability challenges tied to elevated mortgage rates and reinforces that housing remains a pocket of weakness within the U.S. economy.

Inflation data continued to show gradual progress. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) for May rose 0.3% month-over-month, in line with expectations, while the year-over-year inflation rate held at 3.4%. This indicates that underlying price pressures remain elevated relative to the Fed’s 2% target, and progress toward price stability continues at a gradual pace. Inflation also appears to be stabilizing rather than accelerating, reinforcing a higher-for-longer policy outlook.

Durable goods orders declined by 4.5% in May following a strong prior month, a smaller drop than expected. The pullback was driven largely by volatility in transportation orders, particularly aircraft. However, underlying trends were more constructive, with orders excluding transportation and core capital goods both increasing. This suggests that business investment remains stable despite variability in the headline figure.

Labor market data remained a source of strength. Initial jobless claims came in at 215,000, below expectations and consistent with a labor market that remains healthy. Layoffs continue to be limited, supporting the view that employment conditions are stable even as hiring momentum shows signs of slowing.

Overall, the latest data present a mixed view of the economy. Activity remains supported in several areas, though the pace of growth appears uneven across sectors. Labor market conditions continue to show stability, while housing and some measures of business investment reflect more sensitivity to current conditions. In aggregate, the data highlights an economic backdrop that remains intact but lacks uniform strength heading into the second half of the year.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

The upcoming week is shortened by the July 4 holiday but still brings several important releases that will help shape the outlook for growth, labor market conditions, and business activity heading into the second half of the year.

Tuesday’s releases include the June consumer confidence report and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report. Consumer confidence will be closely watched to see how households are responding to still-elevated prices and borrowing costs. JOLTS job openings are expected to edge lower, pointing to a gradual cooling in labor demand, remaining consistent with a relatively tight labor market.

On Wednesday, the focus will shift to employment and manufacturing. The ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for June should provide an early read on private-sector hiring, with expectations for moderate job growth. ISM manufacturing PMI for June is projected to ease slightly but remain in expansion territory, offering a clearer view on whether recent strength in manufacturing activity is holding or beginning to moderate.

Thursday turns to the June employment report. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to reflect a step down in hiring from the prior month, while the unemployment rate is projected to remain broadly stable. Wage growth will also be closely monitored for signs of persistent labor market tightness. Together, the data will help determine whether labor conditions are continuing to cool gradually or showing signs of a more meaningful slowdown.

Overall, the week should further clarify the current macro narrative. Consumer sentiment and job openings will offer additional clarity on labor market trends, while ISM manufacturing will offer further insight into the trajectory of industrial activity.

Economic Indicators:

  1. CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  2. Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  3. PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  4. Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  5. PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  6. Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  7. Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
  8. Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
  9. Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
  10. Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
  11. Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
  12. ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
  13. ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
  14. Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
  15. Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
  16. Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
  17. New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
  18. SA: Seasonally adjusted.
  19. SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

  1. S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
  2. Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
  3. NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
  4. Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
  5. Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
  6. Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
  7. Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
  8. MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
  9. MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
  10. VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
  11. FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
  12. S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
  13. 3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
  14. 10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
  15. 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
  16. WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
  17. Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
  18. Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.0626-2443

Market Commentary | June 22nd, 2026

Market Commentary | June 22nd, 2026

by | Jun 22, 2026 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

June 22nd, 2026

Week in Review

The week of June 15, 2026, was anchored by a highly anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the first under newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, which prompted a shift in monetary policy expectations.

While the FOMC voted unanimously to hold the benchmark interest rate steady at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75%, the accompanying Summary of Economic Projections revealed a distinctly hawkish turn. The updated dot plot showed that nine of the 18 officials now project at least one rate hike by the end of 2026, a sharp reversal from prior projections that hinted at easing. Notably, Chair Warsh opted not to submit his own interest rate projection, reflecting his preference for strict data dependency over rigid forward guidance. This hawkish shift was largely driven by persistent inflation risks, which overshadowed a wave of resilient economic data.

On the data front, consumer demand outpaced forecasts as May core retail sales rose 0.8% month-over-month (0.6% expected). Additionally, the labor market signaled stability, with initial jobless claims holding flat at 226,000 (225,000 expected), while regional manufacturing improved with the Philadelphia Fed Index climbing to 10.3 (9.8 expected). Taken together, these data points signal solid economic resilience.

Equity markets experienced initial volatility following the Fed’s shift toward a higher-for-longer outlook but ultimately finished the week higher overall, supported by improving risk sentiment as policy expectations stabilized.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

The upcoming week centers on Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data, housing, inflation, and key macro releases that will clarify how growth and pricing pressures are evolving into mid-year. Current data points to a resilient but uneven economy, with activity still expanding but gradually moderating.

Tuesday brings preliminary June PMI readings, offering an early look at business activity. Manufacturing PMI is expected to ease slightly to 54.6 from 55.1, while the services PMI is projected to hold near 51.0. Together, these suggest continued expansion with modest cooling.

On Wednesday, focus shifts to housing and energy data. New home sales are expected to rise to 637,000 from 622,000, indicating some demand resilience despite high mortgage rates. Crude oil inventories will also be closely watched after the prior week’s 8.3-million-barrel draw; further tightening could support energy prices.

Thursday concludes the week with a heavy data slate. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is expected to rise 0.3% month-over-month and approximately 3.3% year-over-year, providing insight into inflation progress. Durable goods orders are forecast to decline 4.7% following a prior spike, while GDP is expected to hold at 1.6%. Initial jobless claims are projected to remain stable at 226,000, signaling steady labor market conditions.

Economic Indicators:

  1. CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  2. Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  3. PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  4. Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  5. PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  6. Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  7. Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
  8. Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
  9. Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
  10. Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
  11. Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
  12. ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
  13. ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
  14. Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
  15. Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
  16. Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
  17. New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
  18. SA: Seasonally adjusted.
  19. SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

  1. S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
  2. Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
  3. NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
  4. Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
  5. Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
  6. Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
  7. Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
  8. MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
  9. MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
  10. VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
  11. FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
  12. S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
  13. 3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
  14. 10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
  15. 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
  16. WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
  17. Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
  18. Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.0626-2367

Market Commentary | June 15th, 2026

Market Commentary | June 15th, 2026

by | Jun 15, 2026 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

June 15th, 2026

Week in Review

The past week was highlighted by a landmark capital markets event, as SpaceX completed a record-setting initial public offering (IPO), alongside economic data that pointed to steady growth with persistent inflation pressures.

SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history, raising approximately $75 billion, far exceeding the prior record set by Saudi Aramco. Shares were priced at $135, opened at $150, and closed near $161, representing a first-day gain of roughly 19%. By the end of trading, the company’s market capitalization exceeded $2 trillion, compared to roughly $1.77 trillion at IPO pricing, immediately positioning it among the largest publicly traded companies globally.

Demand for the offering was substantial, with reports indicating the deal was multiple times oversubscribed and total investor interest exceeding $200 billion. The successful execution and strong initial trading reinforce that public markets remain highly receptive to large-scale issuers and could support additional IPO activity, particularly as other highly anticipated listings, such as Anthropic and OpenAI, are expected to come to market later this year.

On the macro side, housing data came in stronger than expected, though the broader backdrop remains constrained. Existing home sales rose to 4.17 million, exceeding expectations near 4.07 million and marking a solid monthly increase. The upside surprise reflects continued resilience in demand, even as mortgage rates remain elevated.

Inflation data presented a more nuanced picture. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.5% month-over-month and 4.2% year-over-year, in line with expectations and reaching a multi-year high. Much of the increase was driven by energy prices, which contributed significantly to the headline gain. In contrast, core CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month, below expectations, indicating that underlying inflation pressures remain more contained. This divergence suggests that recent inflation strength is being driven more by commodity-related factors rather than broad-based demand.

At the same time, producer price data indicates ongoing upstream pressure. The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 1.1% month-over-month and 6.5% year-over-year, coming in above expectations and reflecting a sharp rise in goods prices, particularly energy-related components. This suggests that input costs remain firm, which could eventually pass through to consumer prices if sustained over the coming months.

Overall, last week’s developments reflect a market environment characterized by strong capital formation and steady economic activity, alongside persistent inflation dynamics. The success of the SpaceX IPO highlights continued strength in equity markets and investor demand, while economic data points to resilience in housing and an inflation backdrop that remains uneven.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

The upcoming week will focus on consumer demand, energy markets, and monetary policy.

Retail sales will provide an updated read on consumer spending. In the prior release, sales rose modestly from the previous month following a stronger gain earlier in the quarter, indicating continued growth but some moderation in momentum. The next print will help clarify whether spending remains steady or is beginning to slow.

Crude oil inventories will offer insight into supply conditions. Recent data showed a notable draw in inventories, extending a multi-week decline and leaving stockpiles below typical seasonal levels. The upcoming release will indicate whether that trend of tightening supply continues or begins to stabilize.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision and projections will be the key event of the week. At the last meeting, the Fed held rates unchanged, citing solid economic activity alongside inflation that remains above target, with elevated uncertainty around the outlook. The updated projections will provide insight into how policymakers are assessing growth, inflation, and the expected path of rates following recent data.

Overall, the week’s releases should help refine the near-term outlook for consumption, inflation pressures, and policy direction.

Economic Indicators:

  1. CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  2. Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  3. PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  4. Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  5. PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  6. Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  7. Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
  8. Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
  9. Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
  10. Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
  11. Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
  12. ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
  13. ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
  14. Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
  15. Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
  16. Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
  17. New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
  18. SA: Seasonally adjusted.
  19. SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

  1. S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
  2. Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
  3. NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
  4. Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
  5. Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
  6. Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
  7. Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
  8. MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
  9. MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
  10. VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
  11. FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
  12. S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
  13. 3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
  14. 10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
  15. 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
  16. WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
  17. Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
  18. Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.0626-2241