lportee53 | Elsass Financial Group

Market Commentary | December 22nd, 2025

by lportee53 | Dec 22, 2025 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

December 22nd, 2025

Week in Review…

Last week’s economic data offered a concentrated look at a U.S. economy in transition, with headline numbers masking deeper shifts beneath the surface.

Labor market signals were mixed. November’s hiring beat expectations, but the unemployment rate climbed to a four-year high of 4.6%, and October revisions revealed a loss of 105,000 jobs. The real story is in the details: companies are holding onto staff but cutting hours, driving the U-6 underemployment rate to 8.7% and swelling the ranks of involuntary part-time workers by 909,000. This “hours versus headcount” strategy means workers keep jobs but lose income and markets will likely be on the lookout for weaker consumer spending.

Data from the revised October nonfarm payroll indicates that the higher unemployment rate is mainly due to a loss of 162,000 federal government jobs, largely caused by deferred resignation offers. These displaced workers entered a private sector with frozen hiring, pushing the headline unemployment rate higher. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims remain low, reflecting corporate reluctance to let go of talent, but continuing claims are trending up, signaling that those who lose jobs are struggling to find new ones.

Inflation data delivered a dovish surprise, with headline CPI dropping to 2.7% (BLS). However, analysts caution that this lower-than-expected inflation report may be of “low quality,” as the reported rate could appear artificially low. Analysts specifically point to the collection of data during a period of unusually deep retail discounts and disruptions in the regular survey schedule, both factors that can temporarily suppress measured price increases and distort the true underlying inflation trend. At the same time, Average Hourly Earnings rose just 0.1% in November, indicating that labor is showing early signs of losing pricing power. Together, these reports point to easing wage-driven inflation, but the downside is clear: stagnant wages and shrinking paychecks threaten consumer demand.

Other Reports on the Radar

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (December): Sentiment index fell to 52.9, near historic lows, with labor anxiety now outweighing inflation concerns
Core Retail Sales (November, Census Bureau): Flat overall, with core sales up just 0.2%. Spending shifted toward essentials, while discretionary purchases lagged.
Business Inventories (November, Census Bureau): Rose 0.2%, with retail inventories up 0.4%. Rising inventories could signal slowing demand ahead.
Existing Home Sales (November, NAR): Increased 0.5% to 4.13 million units, but volume remains historically low. Median home price hit a record $409,200, erasing affordability gains from lower rates.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

The Fed’s preferred inflation metric, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), will be closely watched after last week’s “low quality” CPI reading. Investors will look for confirmation of a cooling trend, but any signs of distortion from holiday discounting or delayed data could temper enthusiasm for further Fed easing.

Housing market data will also be in focus, with housing starts and new home sales covering September through November. These releases will reveal whether demand is thawing or if high prices and mortgage rates continue to freeze buyers out. Any improvement in construction or sales could signal a shift, but persistent weakness would highlight ongoing affordability challenges.

Personal spending figures will offer a direct measure of consumer resilience. With wage growth stagnating and underemployment rising, November’s spending data will be scrutinized for signs that households are pulling back, especially on discretionary purchases. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence report will provide another perspective on household sentiment and comparing it to last week’s pessimistic University of Michigan survey will help gauge whether anxiety about jobs and the economy is broad-based.

From a business standpoint, the Industrial Production report and Core Durable Goods Orders will be important indicators of underlying momentum. Weakness here could signal that the slowdown is spreading from consumers to businesses, while any signs of strength might suggest resilience in investment and manufacturing.

Together, these reports will offer a comprehensive snapshot of inflation, consumer demand, and business activity, helping clarify the risks and opportunities as we head into 2026.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.1225-4649

Market Commentary | December 15th, 2025

by lportee53 | Dec 15, 2025 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

December 15th, 2025

Week in Review…

Last week’s economic calendar painted a nuanced picture of the U.S. economy, reflecting a softening labor market, mixed consumer activity, and divergent signals from manufacturing and services sectors.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, released Tuesday for October, showed job openings steady at 7.7 million, holding at a 4.6% rate. The Federal Reserve’s Wednesday decision saw the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) vote to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds target range to 3.50-3.75%. The Fed acknowledged slowing job growth and persistent inflation, signaling vigilance ahead. Chair Powell emphasized data dependence, while the “dot plot” suggested only one more rate cut in 2026.

On Thursday, initial jobless claims surged by 44,000 to 236,000, marking the largest weekly increase since the pandemic’s onset. Despite seasonal volatility post-Thanksgiving—economists stressed the four-week average remained stable—this spike reinforced market concerns about labor market fragility.

Friday’s retail sales data for November revealed a broad slowdown. Headline sales were flat month-over-month, below expectations, while the “control group” (excluding auto, gas, and services) rebounded modestly at +0.7%. Electronics and furniture saw notable strength, but building materials lagged, hinting at softer consumer momentum.

In sum, the week’s releases underscore a labor market losing steam and a cautious consumer base. The Fed’s rate cut aligns with this evolving backdrop, but persistent inflation and mixed signals leave further easing uncertain.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

The week ahead brings several critical data releases that could shape market sentiment and policy expectations. On Tuesday, attention turns to the labor market with nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate. These indicators will provide a clear snapshot of hiring momentum and overall economic resilience. A strong labor report would reinforce confidence in growth, while signs of weakness could amplify concerns about slowing demand. Also on Tuesday, manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings will offer insight into business activity. Divergence between these sectors could highlight the economy’s uneven footing, with manufacturing often signaling global trade pressures and services reflecting domestic strength.

On Thursday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will take center stage as investors gauge inflation trends. This report is pivotal for assessing whether price pressures are easing enough to keep the Federal Reserve on its current path. A softer reading could bolster expectations for policy accommodation, while persistent inflation might temper hopes for further rate cuts.

Finally, Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will round out the week. This measure not only tracks inflation but also reflects consumer spending behavior, making it a key determinant of monetary policy direction. Together, these releases will provide a comprehensive view of labor conditions, business activity, and inflation dynamics—critical inputs for markets navigating an uncertain economic landscape.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.1225-4554

Market Commentary | December 8th, 2025

by lportee53 | Dec 8, 2025 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

December 1st, 2025

Week in Review…

Markets had a shortened trading week due to the Thanksgiving holiday, but several key economic reports provided insight into inflation trends, consumer behavior, and business activity.

Inflation Signals Remain Mixed

September’s Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.3% month-over-month, in line with expectations but higher than August’s -0.1% decline. The increase was largely driven by gasoline prices, which surged 11.8% and accounted for roughly 60% of the rise in final-demand goods. While higher energy costs can pressure corporate margins, the report suggests that structural inflationary pressures remain limited. The Beige Book echoed this view, noting moderate price increases and tariff-related cost pressures, but with mixed ability for firms to pass costs to consumers. Businesses expect cost pressures to persist, though near-term pricing plans remain uncertain.

Consumer Spending and Confidence Show Signs of Strain

Retail sales for September disappointed, with headline growth at 0.2% versus expectations of 0.4%, and well below August’s 0.6%. Core retail sales met forecasts at 0.3% but also softened from prior levels. Adding to the cautious tone, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index saw a significant decline in November, dropping from 95.5 to 88.7. Additionally, the Expectations Index fell to 63.2, marking the tenth straight month below the recession warning level of 80. All components of the index deteriorated, signaling heightened concerns about income, business conditions, and the labor market.

Housing and Business Investment Offer Bright Spots

Despite weaker sentiment, housing activity surprised to the upside. Pending home sales rose 1.9%, well above the 0.5% forecast, as buyers appear to be taking advantage of lower mortgage rates and stable home prices. The House Price Index confirmed that prices were flat in September. Meanwhile, durable goods orders provided a positive signal for manufacturing, with core orders rising 0.6%, slightly above August’s 0.5%, suggesting continued investment in long-lasting goods.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

Markets enter the week focused on three key themes: sentiment, inflation, and labor, as investors look for clues on the Fed’s next move.

Sentiment Indicators Take Center Stage

The week begins with manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings from ISM and S&P Global on Monday, followed by services PMIs on Wednesday. These surveys are closely watched because purchasing managers often have early insight into business conditions, making PMIs leading indicators of economic activity. While services carry more weight in gross domestic product (GDP), manufacturing remains highly cyclical and can signal turning points in the economic cycle. ISM delivers insights focused on the United States, whereas S&P Global presents a broader picture of global supply chains and demand trends. Consequently, analysts will closely monitor any differences that may emerge between domestic and international trends. Sub-indexes, particularly ISM’s Prices Paid, will be scrutinized for signs of inflationary pressure.

Inflation Data Could Shape Fed Expectations

Beyond sentiment, inflation reports will dominate midweek headlines. The University of Michigan will release its 1- and 5-year inflation expectations, offering insight into consumer and business outlooks. More importantly, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, will be released on Friday. Despite its lag, this measure is chain-weighted to reflect changing consumer behavior and will provide critical clarity for a data-dependent Fed. Markets currently price in an 86% chance of a 25 bps rate cut, but an upside surprise in core PCE could challenge that view.

Labor Market in Focus

The Fed’s dual mandate means employment data will also be pivotal. Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, though somewhat dated, will offer valuable insights into job openings, voluntary separations, and overall labor market tightness, serving as important indicators of potential wage pressures. Wednesday’s ADP employment report will offer a more current snapshot of hiring trends ahead of Friday’s official payrolls report. After October’s upside surprise, investors will watch closely to see if the labor market is stabilizing or softening further.

Taken together, these reports underscore an economy facing crosscurrents – softening consumer demand, resilient housing, and inflation signals that keep the Fed in focus.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.

Market Commentary | December 1st, 2025

by lportee53 | Dec 1, 2025 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

December 1st, 2025

Week in Review…

Markets had a shortened trading week due to the Thanksgiving holiday, but several key economic reports provided insight into inflation trends, consumer behavior, and business activity.

Inflation Signals Remain Mixed

September’s Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.3% month-over-month, in line with expectations but higher than August’s -0.1% decline. The increase was largely driven by gasoline prices, which surged 11.8% and accounted for roughly 60% of the rise in final-demand goods. While higher energy costs can pressure corporate margins, the report suggests that structural inflationary pressures remain limited. The Beige Book echoed this view, noting moderate price increases and tariff-related cost pressures, but with mixed ability for firms to pass costs to consumers. Businesses expect cost pressures to persist, though near-term pricing plans remain uncertain.

Consumer Spending and Confidence Show Signs of Strain

Retail sales for September disappointed, with headline growth at 0.2% versus expectations of 0.4%, and well below August’s 0.6%. Core retail sales met forecasts at 0.3% but also softened from prior levels. Adding to the cautious tone, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index saw a significant decline in November, dropping from 95.5 to 88.7. Additionally, the Expectations Index fell to 63.2, marking the tenth straight month below the recession warning level of 80. All components of the index deteriorated, signaling heightened concerns about income, business conditions, and the labor market.

Housing and Business Investment Offer Bright Spots

Despite weaker sentiment, housing activity surprised to the upside. Pending home sales rose 1.9%, well above the 0.5% forecast, as buyers appear to be taking advantage of lower mortgage rates and stable home prices. The House Price Index confirmed that prices were flat in September. Meanwhile, durable goods orders provided a positive signal for manufacturing, with core orders rising 0.6%, slightly above August’s 0.5%, suggesting continued investment in long-lasting goods.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

Markets enter the week focused on three key themes: sentiment, inflation, and labor, as investors look for clues on the Fed’s next move.

Sentiment Indicators Take Center Stage

The week begins with manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings from ISM and S&P Global on Monday, followed by services PMIs on Wednesday. These surveys are closely watched because purchasing managers often have early insight into business conditions, making PMIs leading indicators of economic activity. While services carry more weight in gross domestic product (GDP), manufacturing remains highly cyclical and can signal turning points in the economic cycle. ISM delivers insights focused on the United States, whereas S&P Global presents a broader picture of global supply chains and demand trends. Consequently, analysts will closely monitor any differences that may emerge between domestic and international trends. Sub-indexes, particularly ISM’s Prices Paid, will be scrutinized for signs of inflationary pressure.

Inflation Data Could Shape Fed Expectations

Beyond sentiment, inflation reports will dominate midweek headlines. The University of Michigan will release its 1- and 5-year inflation expectations, offering insight into consumer and business outlooks. More importantly, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, will be released on Friday. Despite its lag, this measure is chain-weighted to reflect changing consumer behavior and will provide critical clarity for a data-dependent Fed. Markets currently price in an 86% chance of a 25 bps rate cut, but an upside surprise in core PCE could challenge that view.

Labor Market in Focus

The Fed’s dual mandate means employment data will also be pivotal. Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, though somewhat dated, will offer valuable insights into job openings, voluntary separations, and overall labor market tightness, serving as important indicators of potential wage pressures. Wednesday’s ADP employment report will offer a more current snapshot of hiring trends ahead of Friday’s official payrolls report. After October’s upside surprise, investors will watch closely to see if the labor market is stabilizing or softening further.

Taken together, these reports underscore an economy facing crosscurrents – softening consumer demand, resilient housing, and inflation signals that keep the Fed in focus.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.

Market Commentary | November 24th, 2025

by lportee53 | Nov 24, 2025 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

November 24th, 2025

Week in Review…

This week’s economic data releases offered a broad update on labor-market momentum, inflation pressures, and business-sector activity, particularly important because several reports were delayed during the recent government shutdown. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes signaled a committee still committed to a data-dependent stance. Officials noted cooling in some inflation components but emphasized uneven progress, and several expressed concern inflation could stall above the 2% target. While members acknowledged loosening labor conditions, there was no urgency to cut rates; the tone suggested the Fed is comfortable staying restrictive until inflation improves more consistently.

Labor-market data showed gradual cooling. Initial jobless claims remained low, underscoring resilience in labor demand, but continuing claims drifted higher, suggesting it is taking longer for unemployed workers to find jobs. The nonfarm payrolls report, delayed earlier by the shutdown, showed moderating job growth concentrated in healthcare and government, while cyclical sectors like manufacturing and transportation softened. The unemployment rate ticked higher, partly due to rising labor-force participation. This mix – steady hiring, slightly higher unemployment, and broader labor supply – supports a narrative of normalization rather than recessionary stress.

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stayed in contraction, pointing to muted orders and cautious inventory management, though input costs eased and delivery times improved, signaling supply-chain inflation continues to unwind. Services PMI remained modestly expansionary, with stable demand in consumer-facing categories despite elevated wage and rent costs. Together, PMI data reflect an economy still growing but at a slower, uneven pace as rate sensitivity spreads from goods to services.

Overall, these releases confirm slower but steady job creation and gradual cooling in economic momentum. Fed minutes show policymakers remain cautious, balancing inflation progress with the risk of easing too soon.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

The coming week brings several high-impact releases that will sharpen the outlook for consumer spending, inflation, and growth. Retail sales (Tuesday) will offer an early read on holiday season momentum, with discretionary categories watched closely as households face higher prices and tighter credit. Consumer Confidence (Tuesday) will provide another gauge of sentiment, which has been drifting lower amid rising borrowing costs and economic uncertainty.

Later in the week, the gross domestic product (GDP) update (Thursday) will clarify whether earlier strength in consumption and inventories persisted or began to fade. The most consequential release comes Friday with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Markets will focus on whether core PCE continues easing toward the 2% target, reinforcing the disinflation trend seen in recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports. Initial jobless claims (Thursday) will also be monitored for signs of labor-market shifts.

Together, these reports will shape expectations for the Fed’s policy path into year-end, with PCE and retail sales carrying the greatest weight for near-term rate-cut discussions.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.1125-4307