Week in Review…

The ongoing government shutdown has created a data vacuum, delaying key economic reports and clouding visibility for the Federal Reserve ahead of its next meeting. Markets now face the unenviable task of interpreting policy direction with limited official data, relying instead on supplemental and tangential indicators to gauge the economy’s trajectory.

The latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes offered context for the recent 25-basis point rate cut, citing a shift in the balance of risks. Policymakers noted rising downside risks to employment and fading upside risks to inflation. This suggests that concerns over a softening labor market now outweigh fears of accelerating inflation, signaling a greater willingness to move rates toward neutral if conditions deteriorate.

In the absence of federal data, markets turned to alternative reports. One of the more notable was the Consumer Credit Report, which came in well below consensus, hinting at stronger consumer balance sheets, with consumers paying down debt rather than increasing leverage. However, this data is often revised, so markets will take it with a grain of salt. Inflation signals remain mixed: the University of Michigan survey showed gradually declining expectations for both the one- and five-year periods, while the New York Fed’s consumer survey reported a modest increase in short-term expectations. Markets must contend with this ambiguity amid a backdrop of limited data.

Treasury auctions for 3-, 10-, and 30-year bonds cleared at higher yields than last month, signaling a broad upward shift in the curve. This appears driven by rising real rate expectations and a higher term premium, rather than inflation fears. The 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate held steady around 2.30% –2.35%, suggesting investors are demanding more compensation for duration risk amid “higher for longer” policy expectations and fiscal concerns.

With the government shutdown still in effect, markets continue to operate in a data-constrained environment. The September jobs report remains delayed, and other key releases, including weekly jobless claims and the retail sales report, are also postponed. Even the Consumer Price Index, originally scheduled for October 15, has been pushed to October 24 to support Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) calculations.

In the absence of fresh government data, investors will increasingly rely on private-sector releases and Fed communications. This week features a heavy slate of speeches from Federal Reserve officials, including Vice Chair Bowman and Governor Barr. With Chair Powell’s expected departure in 2026, markets may begin shifting their attention toward the broader committee for clues on the future policy path, especially as consensus-building becomes more critical in a fragmented data environment.

Additionally, global energy reports may offer indirect insights into economic momentum. The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (October 13) and the IEA Monthly Oil Market Report (October 14) will provide detailed views on oil supply, demand, and pricing trends. These reports, unaffected by the shutdown, may help markets assess inflationary pressures and industrial activity through the lens of energy consumption and production.

In this environment, every speech, survey, and tangential indicator may begin to take on outsized importance as markets prepare for the Fed’s October 28–29 meeting.

Economic Indicators:

1. CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2. Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
3. PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
4. Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
5. PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
6. Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
7. Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
8. Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
9. Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
10. Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
11. Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
12. ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
13. ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
14. Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
15. Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
16. Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
17. New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
18. SA: Seasonally adjusted.
19. SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

1. S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
2. Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
3. NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
4. Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
5. Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
6. Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
7. Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
8. MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
9. MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
10. VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
11. FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
12. S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
13. 3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
14. 10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
15. 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
16. WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
17. Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
18. Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.1025-3773

Week in Review…

Last week’s economic data painted a mixed picture of the U.S. economy. August’s pending home sales surged by 4%, far exceeding the forecasted 0.2%, signaling continued strength in the real estate market. The labor market also showed resilience, with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reporting 7.227 million job openings – higher than expected – suggesting a bullish tone for the month. However, consumer sentiment took a hit, as the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index came in lower than anticipated for September, reflecting growing pessimism among consumers. On a more positive note, both the Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for September surpassed forecasts, indicating ongoing robustness in these key sectors.

This week brings several key indicators that could shape market sentiment. September’s Consumer Inflation Expectations and October’s Michigan Consumer Expectations will offer insight into how consumers view the economy and inflation trends. Labor market health will be gauged through initial and continuing jobless claims, both forecasted to rise from previous readings, potentially signaling a bearish shift if the trend persists. Economists will be watching to see if this continues to occur. Investors will also be closely watching the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes for clues about a possible rate cut later this month. Additionally, the Energy Information Administration will publish crude oil inventory data, which could influence petroleum prices and broader inflation dynamics.

Economic Indicators:

1. CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2. Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
3. PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
4. Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
5. PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
6. Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
7. Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
8. Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
9. Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
10. Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
11. Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
12. ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
13. ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
14. Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
15. Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
16. Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
17. New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
18. SA: Seasonally adjusted.
19. SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

1. S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
2. Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
3. NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
4. Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
5. Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
6. Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
7. Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
8. MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
9. MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
10. VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
11. FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
12. S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
13. 3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
14. 10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
15. 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
16. WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
17. Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
18. Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.1025-3658

Week in Review…

The week began with key sentiment data from the S&P Global Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs). Both readings came in slightly below market expectations and last month’s figures, suggesting some softening in forward-looking sentiment. However, with Manufacturing at 52.0 and Services at 53.9, both remain above the 50 threshold, signaling continued expansion in economic activity rather than contraction.

Housing Market Strength Surprises
Midweek brought encouraging news from the housing sector. Revised building permits data erased some of the prior week’s disappointment, while new home sales surged to 800,000, well above the 650,000 forecast. This represented a 20.5% month-over-month (MoM) increase compared to last month’s -1.8% decline. Similarly, existing home sales slightly beat expectations at 4.00M versus 3.96M; however, home sales slipped marginally by 0.2% MoM. Collectively, these reports underscore resilience in the U.S. housing market, providing an important proxy for consumer confidence and willingness to commit to large purchases.

Inflation Data in Focus
Friday’s spotlight was on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge: core and headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). Both came in as expected, with core PCE at 2.9% year-over-year (YoY) and headline at 2.7% YoY. While these figures reinforce the narrative of inflation moderating, they also highlight its persistence near 3%, well above the Fed’s 2% target. This stickiness suggests the Fed will likely maintain its easing bias but proceed cautiously. Supporting this view, University of Michigan data showed consumer inflation expectations ticking lower for both 1- and 5-year horizons, though the 1-year expectation remains elevated at 4.7%. Consumer sentiment and expectations indices also came in slightly below forecasts, reflecting tempered optimism.

Quick Hits

• Durable goods orders (both headline and core) exceeded forecasts, signaling robust business investment in big-ticket items
• Treasury auctions for the 2-, 5-, and 7-year notes were broadly in line with prior results, leaving the belly of the curve relatively stable

Employment Data – Labor Market Under the Microscope

This week’s spotlight is on the labor market, with several reports that could shape expectations for Fed policy. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report on Tuesday will provide insight into job openings and turnover trends, with the Quits Rate serving as a key gauge of worker confidence and wage pressure. Elevated quits often point to stronger wage growth, which can feed inflation.

On Wednesday, the ADP Employment Report offers an early read on private sector hiring ahead of Friday’s official data. After four weak prints in the last five months, markets will look for signs of stabilization. The week culminates with nonfarm payrolls, where forecasts call for 39,000 following last month’s disappointing 22,000 gain and downward revisions. The unemployment rate, which has ticked up from June’s 4.1% low, will also be closely watched. A continued rise would complicate the Fed’s balancing act between sticky inflation and softening employment. Finally, average hourly earnings will be scrutinized for wage growth trends, a critical input for inflation and consumer spending outlooks.

Sentiment Data – Gauging Confidence Across the Economy

Beyond jobs, markets will digest key sentiment indicators. The ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs, along with finalized S&P Global PMIs, will provide updated reads on business activity. Within these reports, the Prices Paid sub-index will be closely monitored as a signal of inflationary pressures.

On the consumer side, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index will offer a snapshot of household optimism – a vital driver of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). Any deterioration could signal caution ahead for retail activity, while resilience would suggest consumers remain willing to spend despite economic uncertainties.

Other Reports to Watch:

• Pending Home Sales (MoM): A leading indicator for housing demand and affordability
• Factory Orders (MoM): A forward-looking measure of manufacturing health and business investment, feeding directly into GDP estimates

Economic Indicators:

1. CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2. Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
3. PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
4. Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
5. PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
6. Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
7. Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
8. Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
9. Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
10. Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
11. Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
12. ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
13. ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
14. Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
15. Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
16. Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
17. New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
18. SA: Seasonally adjusted.
19. SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

1. S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
2. Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
3. NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
4. Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
5. Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
6. Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
7. Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
8. MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
9. MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
10. VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
11. FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
12. S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
13. 3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
14. 10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
15. 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
16. WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
17. Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
18. Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Week in Review…

FOMC Decision and Inflation Outlook

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) dominated headlines as the Fed cut its target rate by 25 bps, citing a softening labor market and downside risks. Chair Powell noted core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation remains above the 2% target, with goods inflation picking up. While tariffs may create short-term inflation pressure, the Fed expects normalization over the medium to long term.

Retail Sales and Industrial Production

Retail sales surprised to the upside, with core (ex-autos) rising 0.7% vs. 0.4% expected, reinforcing the narrative of resilient consumer spending — a key driver of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).

Industrial production also delivered a positive surprise. Output from manufacturers, quarries, and utilities rose 0.1% month-over-month (MoM), beating expectations of -0.1% and reversing the prior month’s -0.4% decline.

However, inventory data painted a more nuanced picture. Business inventories and retail inventories ex-auto both increased, signaling stockpiles are building at wholesale and retail levels. While this can sometimes point to softening demand, it may also reflect businesses preparing for future consumption. Investors will be watching closely to see which narrative prevails.

Housing Market Weakness

Wednesday brought disappointing housing data, with both building permits and housing starts coming in weaker than expected. Building permits, a forward-looking indicator, suggest softer future demand, while housing starts point to a market that may not be as resilient as hoped.

Quick Hitters

• Labor Market: Weekly jobless claims were a bright spot. Both continuing and initial claims came in below expectations, with continuing claims improving for five straight weeks and initial claims breaking a two-week losing streak
• Inflation Expectations: The 10-year TIPS yield fell to 1.734% from 1.985%, while the TIPS/Treasury breakeven held at 2.38%, signaling lower real rates even as long-term inflation expectations remain anchored

After a week dominated by the Fed’s rate cut and mixed economic signals, attention now turns to a packed slate of data that could influence growth expectations, inflation trends, and the market’s outlook for policy.

The week begins with S&P Global Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), offering an early read on business sentiment across two critical sectors. These forward-looking indicators often shape expectations for future economic activity.

Housing will remain in focus after last week’s soft data. Investors will look for upward revisions to building permits and fresh insights from new home sales on Wednesday, followed by existing home sales on Thursday. Together, these reports provide a clearer picture of housing demand and consumer appetite for large purchases — a key gauge of economic resilience.

On Thursday, attention shifts to core durable goods orders, a proxy for business investment and confidence. Strong readings here would suggest firms remain willing to commit capital despite uncertainty.

The week concludes with the Fed’s preferred inflation measure: headline and core PCE. Markets expect a 0.2% MoM increase, down from 0.3% previously. Any upside surprise could complicate the rate-cut narrative. Later in the day, the University of Michigan will release updated inflation expectations and consumer sentiment, offering additional insight into the economic outlook and policy decisions.

Copyright © 2025 Cambridge Investment Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Member FINRA / SIPC

Week in Review…

Economic data released this past week suggests a mixed but slightly cooling inflationary environment. The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August rose 0.3% month-over-month, with CPI increasing 0.4%, bringing the year-over-year CPI to 2.9%, a slight uptick from July’s 2.7%. This increase implies elevated but relatively stable inflation, suggesting underlying price pressures are still present but not accelerating.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) surprised markets after a 0.9% increase in July, with a 0.1% decline in August, marking the second instance of deflation in wholesale prices this year. With wholesale inflation easing, this can be a signal for less pricing pressure in the supply chain.

Labor market data showed signs of softening. Initial jobless claims rose to 263,000, the highest level in nearly four years. This uptick may reflect a weakening labor market, with companies taking a cautious hiring approach amid economic uncertainty.

Overall, the data suggests the economy is entering a more balanced phase. Inflation appears to be stabilizing, with price pressures no longer accelerating, while signs of labor market softening are beginning to emerge. This combination points to a shift in momentum, where growth is steady, but risks are rising. It may prompt the Federal Reserve to take a more cautious approach, weighing inflation control against the need to support a cooling economy.

This week’s economic calendar showcases several high-impact U.S. releases that could help shape market sentiment and influence the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

On Tuesday, the spotlight will be on retail sales, a key gauge of consumer spending. This report will help provide an idea of whether households are maintaining demand despite elevated prices and tighter financial conditions, giving insight into the resilience of the U.S. broader economy.

Wednesday brings the highly anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision, a crucial moment for markets. With inflation showing signs of stabilization and labor market data softening, investors will be watching intensely for any shift in stance or forward guidance. The Fed’s decision will likely set the tone for monetary policy heading into the final quarter of 2025.

To wrap up the week, on Thursday, attention will fall on initial jobless claims, a timely indicator of labor market health. Recent increases in claims have raised some concerns about employment momentum, and this week’s data will be closely watched for confirmation of a potential trend. A continued rise could signal growing caution among employers as well as adding weight to expectations for a more accommodative Fed stance.

Economic Indicators:

1. CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2. Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
3. PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
4. Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
5. PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
6. Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
7. Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
8. Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
9. Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
10. Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
11. Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
12. ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
13. ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
14. Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
15. Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
16. Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
17. New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
18. SA: Seasonally adjusted.
19. SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

1. S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
2. Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
3. NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
4. Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
5. Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
6. Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
7. Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
8. MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
9. MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
10. VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
11. FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
12. S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
13. 3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
14. 10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
15. 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
16. WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
17. Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
18. Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.0925-