lportee53, Author at Elsass Financial Group

Market Commentary | December 8th, 2025

by lportee53 | Dec 8, 2025 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

December 1st, 2025

Week in Review…

Markets had a shortened trading week due to the Thanksgiving holiday, but several key economic reports provided insight into inflation trends, consumer behavior, and business activity.

Inflation Signals Remain Mixed

September’s Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.3% month-over-month, in line with expectations but higher than August’s -0.1% decline. The increase was largely driven by gasoline prices, which surged 11.8% and accounted for roughly 60% of the rise in final-demand goods. While higher energy costs can pressure corporate margins, the report suggests that structural inflationary pressures remain limited. The Beige Book echoed this view, noting moderate price increases and tariff-related cost pressures, but with mixed ability for firms to pass costs to consumers. Businesses expect cost pressures to persist, though near-term pricing plans remain uncertain.

Consumer Spending and Confidence Show Signs of Strain

Retail sales for September disappointed, with headline growth at 0.2% versus expectations of 0.4%, and well below August’s 0.6%. Core retail sales met forecasts at 0.3% but also softened from prior levels. Adding to the cautious tone, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index saw a significant decline in November, dropping from 95.5 to 88.7. Additionally, the Expectations Index fell to 63.2, marking the tenth straight month below the recession warning level of 80. All components of the index deteriorated, signaling heightened concerns about income, business conditions, and the labor market.

Housing and Business Investment Offer Bright Spots

Despite weaker sentiment, housing activity surprised to the upside. Pending home sales rose 1.9%, well above the 0.5% forecast, as buyers appear to be taking advantage of lower mortgage rates and stable home prices. The House Price Index confirmed that prices were flat in September. Meanwhile, durable goods orders provided a positive signal for manufacturing, with core orders rising 0.6%, slightly above August’s 0.5%, suggesting continued investment in long-lasting goods.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

Markets enter the week focused on three key themes: sentiment, inflation, and labor, as investors look for clues on the Fed’s next move.

Sentiment Indicators Take Center Stage

The week begins with manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings from ISM and S&P Global on Monday, followed by services PMIs on Wednesday. These surveys are closely watched because purchasing managers often have early insight into business conditions, making PMIs leading indicators of economic activity. While services carry more weight in gross domestic product (GDP), manufacturing remains highly cyclical and can signal turning points in the economic cycle. ISM delivers insights focused on the United States, whereas S&P Global presents a broader picture of global supply chains and demand trends. Consequently, analysts will closely monitor any differences that may emerge between domestic and international trends. Sub-indexes, particularly ISM’s Prices Paid, will be scrutinized for signs of inflationary pressure.

Inflation Data Could Shape Fed Expectations

Beyond sentiment, inflation reports will dominate midweek headlines. The University of Michigan will release its 1- and 5-year inflation expectations, offering insight into consumer and business outlooks. More importantly, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, will be released on Friday. Despite its lag, this measure is chain-weighted to reflect changing consumer behavior and will provide critical clarity for a data-dependent Fed. Markets currently price in an 86% chance of a 25 bps rate cut, but an upside surprise in core PCE could challenge that view.

Labor Market in Focus

The Fed’s dual mandate means employment data will also be pivotal. Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, though somewhat dated, will offer valuable insights into job openings, voluntary separations, and overall labor market tightness, serving as important indicators of potential wage pressures. Wednesday’s ADP employment report will offer a more current snapshot of hiring trends ahead of Friday’s official payrolls report. After October’s upside surprise, investors will watch closely to see if the labor market is stabilizing or softening further.

Taken together, these reports underscore an economy facing crosscurrents – softening consumer demand, resilient housing, and inflation signals that keep the Fed in focus.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.

Market Commentary | December 1st, 2025

by lportee53 | Dec 1, 2025 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

December 1st, 2025

Week in Review…

Markets had a shortened trading week due to the Thanksgiving holiday, but several key economic reports provided insight into inflation trends, consumer behavior, and business activity.

Inflation Signals Remain Mixed

September’s Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.3% month-over-month, in line with expectations but higher than August’s -0.1% decline. The increase was largely driven by gasoline prices, which surged 11.8% and accounted for roughly 60% of the rise in final-demand goods. While higher energy costs can pressure corporate margins, the report suggests that structural inflationary pressures remain limited. The Beige Book echoed this view, noting moderate price increases and tariff-related cost pressures, but with mixed ability for firms to pass costs to consumers. Businesses expect cost pressures to persist, though near-term pricing plans remain uncertain.

Consumer Spending and Confidence Show Signs of Strain

Retail sales for September disappointed, with headline growth at 0.2% versus expectations of 0.4%, and well below August’s 0.6%. Core retail sales met forecasts at 0.3% but also softened from prior levels. Adding to the cautious tone, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index saw a significant decline in November, dropping from 95.5 to 88.7. Additionally, the Expectations Index fell to 63.2, marking the tenth straight month below the recession warning level of 80. All components of the index deteriorated, signaling heightened concerns about income, business conditions, and the labor market.

Housing and Business Investment Offer Bright Spots

Despite weaker sentiment, housing activity surprised to the upside. Pending home sales rose 1.9%, well above the 0.5% forecast, as buyers appear to be taking advantage of lower mortgage rates and stable home prices. The House Price Index confirmed that prices were flat in September. Meanwhile, durable goods orders provided a positive signal for manufacturing, with core orders rising 0.6%, slightly above August’s 0.5%, suggesting continued investment in long-lasting goods.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

Markets enter the week focused on three key themes: sentiment, inflation, and labor, as investors look for clues on the Fed’s next move.

Sentiment Indicators Take Center Stage

The week begins with manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings from ISM and S&P Global on Monday, followed by services PMIs on Wednesday. These surveys are closely watched because purchasing managers often have early insight into business conditions, making PMIs leading indicators of economic activity. While services carry more weight in gross domestic product (GDP), manufacturing remains highly cyclical and can signal turning points in the economic cycle. ISM delivers insights focused on the United States, whereas S&P Global presents a broader picture of global supply chains and demand trends. Consequently, analysts will closely monitor any differences that may emerge between domestic and international trends. Sub-indexes, particularly ISM’s Prices Paid, will be scrutinized for signs of inflationary pressure.

Inflation Data Could Shape Fed Expectations

Beyond sentiment, inflation reports will dominate midweek headlines. The University of Michigan will release its 1- and 5-year inflation expectations, offering insight into consumer and business outlooks. More importantly, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, will be released on Friday. Despite its lag, this measure is chain-weighted to reflect changing consumer behavior and will provide critical clarity for a data-dependent Fed. Markets currently price in an 86% chance of a 25 bps rate cut, but an upside surprise in core PCE could challenge that view.

Labor Market in Focus

The Fed’s dual mandate means employment data will also be pivotal. Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, though somewhat dated, will offer valuable insights into job openings, voluntary separations, and overall labor market tightness, serving as important indicators of potential wage pressures. Wednesday’s ADP employment report will offer a more current snapshot of hiring trends ahead of Friday’s official payrolls report. After October’s upside surprise, investors will watch closely to see if the labor market is stabilizing or softening further.

Taken together, these reports underscore an economy facing crosscurrents – softening consumer demand, resilient housing, and inflation signals that keep the Fed in focus.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.

Market Commentary | November 24th, 2025

by lportee53 | Nov 24, 2025 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

November 24th, 2025

Week in Review…

This week’s economic data releases offered a broad update on labor-market momentum, inflation pressures, and business-sector activity, particularly important because several reports were delayed during the recent government shutdown. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes signaled a committee still committed to a data-dependent stance. Officials noted cooling in some inflation components but emphasized uneven progress, and several expressed concern inflation could stall above the 2% target. While members acknowledged loosening labor conditions, there was no urgency to cut rates; the tone suggested the Fed is comfortable staying restrictive until inflation improves more consistently.

Labor-market data showed gradual cooling. Initial jobless claims remained low, underscoring resilience in labor demand, but continuing claims drifted higher, suggesting it is taking longer for unemployed workers to find jobs. The nonfarm payrolls report, delayed earlier by the shutdown, showed moderating job growth concentrated in healthcare and government, while cyclical sectors like manufacturing and transportation softened. The unemployment rate ticked higher, partly due to rising labor-force participation. This mix – steady hiring, slightly higher unemployment, and broader labor supply – supports a narrative of normalization rather than recessionary stress.

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stayed in contraction, pointing to muted orders and cautious inventory management, though input costs eased and delivery times improved, signaling supply-chain inflation continues to unwind. Services PMI remained modestly expansionary, with stable demand in consumer-facing categories despite elevated wage and rent costs. Together, PMI data reflect an economy still growing but at a slower, uneven pace as rate sensitivity spreads from goods to services.

Overall, these releases confirm slower but steady job creation and gradual cooling in economic momentum. Fed minutes show policymakers remain cautious, balancing inflation progress with the risk of easing too soon.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

The coming week brings several high-impact releases that will sharpen the outlook for consumer spending, inflation, and growth. Retail sales (Tuesday) will offer an early read on holiday season momentum, with discretionary categories watched closely as households face higher prices and tighter credit. Consumer Confidence (Tuesday) will provide another gauge of sentiment, which has been drifting lower amid rising borrowing costs and economic uncertainty.

Later in the week, the gross domestic product (GDP) update (Thursday) will clarify whether earlier strength in consumption and inventories persisted or began to fade. The most consequential release comes Friday with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Markets will focus on whether core PCE continues easing toward the 2% target, reinforcing the disinflation trend seen in recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports. Initial jobless claims (Thursday) will also be monitored for signs of labor-market shifts.

Together, these reports will shape expectations for the Fed’s policy path into year-end, with PCE and retail sales carrying the greatest weight for near-term rate-cut discussions.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.1125-4307

Market Commentary | November 17th, 2025

by lportee53 | Nov 17, 2025 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

November 17th, 2025

Week in Review…

This week’s economic data offered a multifaceted view of market sentiment as investors weighed inflation risks, interest rate expectations, and energy supply dynamics. With the Federal Reserve maintaining a cautious stance, attention turned to Treasury auctions and oil inventories for signals on how financial and commodity markets are responding to evolving macroeconomic conditions.

On November 12, the U.S. Treasury auctioned $42 billion in 10-year notes at a yield of 4.074%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.43, slightly below the recent average. The muted demand suggests investors remain cautious about long-term interest rate risk, likely reflecting persistent inflation concerns and uncertainty around the Fed’s policy path.

The following day, the 30-year bond auction saw $25 billion issued at a yield of 4.694%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.29. This was also below trend, reinforcing the notion that investors are hesitant to lock in capital at current long-term rates, possibly anticipating further tightening or inflation persistence.

Meanwhile, the EIA’s crude oil inventory report showed a 6.4 million barrel build, well above expectations. While gasoline and distillate inventories declined, the headline increase in crude stockpiles points to a temporary supply-demand imbalance, which could ease some inflationary pressure in energy markets.

Taken together, these indicators reflect a market grappling with elevated yields, inflation uncertainty, and shifting energy fundamentals. The soft bond auction results underscore investor wariness, while the oil inventory build may offer modest relief on the inflation front.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

The upcoming week features several high-impact releases that could shape monetary policy expectations and market sentiment.

On Wednesday, November 19, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes will offer insight into the Fed’s internal discussions. With inflation still elevated and labor market data softening, investors will closely examine the tone for clues on future rate decisions.

Also on Wednesday, the EIA’s crude oil inventory report will be closely watched following last week’s unexpected 6.4 million barrel build. Another increase could signal easing energy demand, while a drawdown may point to resilient consumption and renewed inflationary pressure.

On Thursday, November 20, the existing home sales report for October will provide a snapshot of housing market momentum. After a modest rebound in September, analysts expect sales to remain flat or decline slightly due to high mortgage rates and tight inventory. This data will help gauge consumer demand in one of the most rate-sensitive sectors.

Finally, on Friday, November 21, the S&P Global Flash Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) for manufacturing and services will offer a timely read on business activity. October’s manufacturing PMI rose to 52.5, while services edged up to 54.8, both signaling modest growth. November’s data will be key in assessing whether the economy is maintaining momentum or beginning to slow under tighter financial conditions.

Together, these releases will help shape expectations for the Fed’s December meeting and broader economic trajectory.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.1125-4232

For financial professional use only.

Market Commentary | November 10th, 2025

by lportee53 | Nov 10, 2025 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

November 10th, 2025

Week in Review…

Markets absorbed a week of mixed signals, with strength in headline data masking underlying fragility and inflation trends complicating the path forward.

Labor Growth: Resilience in Headlines, Fragility Underneath

With the nonfarm payrolls report delayed, the ADP National Employment Report became the primary labor gauge. The headline numbers beat expectations, offering initial relief. However, gains were concentrated in large firms, while small and mid-sized businesses cut jobs. Despite strong headline figures, underlying labor market conditions showed signs of fragility and lacked broad-based support.

Sentiment Divergence: Services Strong, Manufacturing Weak

ISM surveys revealed a growing split in economic momentum. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell deeper into contraction, signaling continued industrial weakness. In contrast, Services PMI expanded at its fastest pace since early 2023, driven by strong new orders and business activity. This resilience in services provided key market support.

Notably, the Services Employment Index remained in contraction but posted its first meaningful improvement in five months, suggesting service-sector job cuts may be slowing — a small but important sign of stabilization.

Inflationary Warnings: A Complex Price and Expectation Picture

Inflation remains the most concerning macro signal. The ISM Services Prices Paid index surged to 70.0%, its highest since October 2022, pointing to rising cost pressures in the dominant services sector. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing Prices Paid index eased, highlighting a cooling in goods inflation. This bifurcation underscores a key challenge: while goods inflation is moderating, services inflation, which is more persistent and harder to tame, is heating up.

Consumer expectations echoed this tension. The University of Michigan survey showed 1-year inflation expectations rising above forecasts, while 5-year expectations declined, suggesting longer-term inflation remains anchored. These dynamics complicate the Fed’s path to rate cuts and may keep short-term Treasury yields elevated.

Peripheral Indicators and Consumer Signals

Consumer sentiment fell to a three-year low, hinting at weakening confidence and potential spending slowdown
Consumer credit rose sharply, possibly reflecting short-term borrowing amid fiscal uncertainty
Crude inventories posted a surprise surplus, signaling cooling demand and potential relief in energy prices

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

With the government shutdown continuing to limit official economic data, markets will turn to alternative sources for insight. Though the calendar is light, the few scheduled releases carry outsized importance, particularly those tied to global energy trends and small business sentiment.

A dominant theme this week will be oil supply and demand, with major reports from OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA). These monthly publications offer detailed analysis of global crude market dynamics and will be closely watched for any revisions to demand forecasts and as a proxy for broader economic activity, especially in manufacturing and travel. Domestically, the weekly crude oil inventory report will provide a near-term snapshot of U.S. supply. After last week’s unexpected inventory build, markets will look for confirmation of a cooling demand trend, which could influence price action and reinforce cautious sentiment around industrial consumption.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index will also be closely watched. This release is particularly relevant following ADP employment data, which showed job growth concentrated in large firms while smaller businesses reduced headcount. The NFIB reading will help clarify whether this hiring slowdown reflects economic pessimism, financial strain, or strategic shifts toward efficiency — potentially driven by technology adoption. Regardless of the cause, the index will offer valuable insight into hiring intentions within a critical segment of the U.S. economy.

Finally, scheduled Treasury auctions for 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year maturities will provide fresh signals on debt demand and yield curve dynamics. Investor appetite for long-duration bonds will be closely monitored, especially in the absence of traditional data, as it reflects market expectations for inflation, risk, and monetary policy direction.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.1125-4146

For financial professional use only.