Stocks fluctuated last week, jostled by fitful bond yields and headline news, before ending strongly following Fed Chair Powell’s comments on the monetary outlook.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.45%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 0.82%. The Nasdaq Composite index rose 2.26% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, added 0.78%.^1,2,3

Stocks Manage Gains

Stock rallied on Monday on upbeat sentiment over the earnings release from a mega-cap semiconductor company scheduled for mid-week, only to see that momentum fizzle the following day on weak retail earnings and a credit downgrade of a handful of banks.

Stocks resumed their rally on weak economic data, which fueled hopes for future Fed dovishness. They also rose on expectations that earnings from a leading AI chipmaker would validate the AI narrative that propelled markets in the second quarter. Despite a blowout earnings report, stocks turned lower as investor attention quickly switched to Fed Chair Powell’s presentation scheduled for Friday.

After some initial jitteriness, Investors responded well to Powell’s comments, posting gains to close the week.

Powell Stands Firm

Powell spoke on Friday at the Fed’s annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, asserting that, despite considerable progress, inflation remained too high and additional rate hikes may be in the offing. He acknowledged that previous rate increases had not yet thoroughly worked their way through the system, so caution about further hikes was needed.

Investors reacted to Powell’s comments far better than in August 2022, when a hawkish presentation sent stocks lower. Powell also addressed a growing feeling among investors that the Fed may eventually raise its inflation target to 2.5-3.0%. Powell rejected this idea unambiguously, stating that the two percent target would remain the Fed’s inflation goal.

This Week: Key Economic Data

Tuesday: Consumer Confidence. Job Openings and Turnover Survey (JOLTS).

Wednesday: Automated Data Processing (ADP) Employment Report. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Thursday: Personal Income and Outlays. Jobless Claims.

Friday: Employment Situation. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index. 

^{Source: Econoday, August 25, 2023
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Tuesday: Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE), HP, Inc. (HPQ)

Wednesday: Salesforce, Inc. (CRM), Veeva Systems, Inc. (VEEV), CrowdStrike (CRWD).

Thursday: lululemon athletica, inc. (LULU), Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO), Dollar General Corporation (DG), Dell Technologies, Inc. (DELL), VMware, Inc. (VMW)

^{Source: Zacks, August 25, 2023
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

“Every man is working out his destiny in his own way and nobody can be of any help except by being kind, generous, and patient.”

– Henry Miller

Starting A New Business

Starting a new business? Here’s a tip that the Internal Revenue Service shares for new business owners:

Choose an appropriate business structure: The form of business determines which income tax return a business taxpayer needs to file.

If necessary, apply for an Employer Identification Number (EIN): An EIN is used to identify a business structure outside a personal identification number.

*This information is not intended to substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov⁴

Boost Your Productivity With These Tips

Take regular breaks. It seems counterintuitive, but most people are more productive when they take frequent breaks.

Do the complicated tasks first. Mark Twain famously said to “eat the frog first thing in the morning,” meaning that you should tackle your most challenging task immediately.

Make two to-do lists, one with your weekly goals and objectives and one with your daily tasks.

Divide large projects into manageable steps. Make the things on your to-do list specific so you can continue to cross things out and make progress.

Tip adapted from Formstack⁵

At a picnic, a photo has to be taken that depicts 6 children, 4 grandchildren, 2 brothers, 2 sisters, 3 sons, 3 daughters, 2 fathers, 2 mothers, 1 grandfather, 1 grandmother, 1 daughter-in-law, 1 mother-in-law, and 1 father-in-law. What is the smallest number of people that could appear in the photo?

Last week’s riddle:  Which of these five words doesn’t belong on this list: that, what, cat, sat, chat. Answer: What, as it doesn’t rhyme with the other words on the list.

Footnotes And Sources

^{1. The Wall Street Journal, August 25, 2023}

^{2. The Wall Street Journal, August 25, 2023}

^{3. The Wall Street Journal, August 25, 2023}

^{4. IRS.gov, March 1, 2023}

^{5. Formstack, April 24, 2023}

^{Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.}

^{The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.}

^{The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.}

^{The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.}

^{U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.}

^{International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.}

^{Please consult your financial professional for additional information.}

^{This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.}

^{Copyright 2023 FMG Suite.}

As the Fed continues its fight against inflation, one of the more challenging parts of the economy is gauging what’s happening in the jobs market.

One July report showed the private sector added nearly 500,000 jobs, double the expectations. Meanwhile, another July report showed that job openings fell by 500,000, also above expectations.

In explaining why the Fed may boost interest rates again in 2023, Fed Chair Powell said, “What’s really driving it … is a very strong labor market.”¹

The accompanying chart shows why the Fed struggles to understand what’s happening with today’s jobs market.

As you can see, the number of self-employed people rose to an all-time high during COVID. But now it’s falling at a rapid pace. What’s causing the drop? More people appear to be returning to work at 9-5 jobs, perhaps fearful that the economy might collapse into a recession. When economic growth slows, perceptions may hold that 9-5 jobs seem more secure.

The Fed has several mandates, including managing the nation’s monetary policy to promote stable prices and maximum employment.

Sometimes, those two jobs can conflict. If you raise rates too high and economic growth slows in response, higher unemployment may be the outcome. Don’t raise rates enough, and inflation can raise prices. Add in the twist of how Covid influenced the jobs market, and you can see why the Fed may be scratching its head a bit with interest rates.

One of my favorite sayings is, “Don’t worry about the horse. Just load the wagon.” In this instance, perhaps a more accurate saying would be, “Don’t worry about the Fed. Just focus on the investment strategy we created.”

Stocks extended their August declines last week as higher yields and weak economic data out of China soured investor sentiment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.21%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 retreated 2.11%. The Nasdaq Composite index backtracked 2.59% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, slumped 2.83%.^1,2,3

Stocks Wilt

Rising bond yields, driven primarily by strong economic data and the release of the minutes from July’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that pointed toward Fed officials’ potential need to raise rates further, weighed on stocks throughout the week.

In a week of light trading typical of August, stocks were additionally buffeted by a string of economic data that painted a flailing economic recovery in China and warnings of potential downgrades of dozens of U.S. banks by Fitch, a credit-rating agency.

After the 10-year Treasury yield rose to its highest level since October 2022 on Thursday, yields eased on Friday, helping to arrest the week’s downward trend.⁴

Retail Sales Surprise

Retail sales jumped 0.7% in July, the fourth-consecutive month of increasing consumer spending on goods. The report supported the growing narrative that the U.S. may be able to avoid a recession in the near term. The strong spending data, supported by a robust labor market, also may have placed the Fed in a more difficult position in trying to bring inflation down to its target rate without more rate hikes.⁵ 

Consumer spending was higher in most categories, including bars and restaurants, grocery and hardware stores, and back-to-school items like books and clothing. Sales of autos and electronics fell, a possible consequence of higher borrowing costs.⁵

This Week: Key Economic Data

Tuesday: Existing Home Sales.

Wednesday: Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Composite Flash. New Home Sales.

Thursday: Durable Goods Orders. Jobless Claims.

^{Source: Econoday, August 18, 2023
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Monday: Zoom Video Communications, Inc. (ZM)

Tuesday: Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (LOW)

Wednesday: Nvidia Corporation (NVDA), Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK), Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI), Snowflake, Inc. (SNOW)

Thursday: Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL), Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA), Workday, Inc. (WDAY), Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR)

^{Source: Zacks, August 18, 2023
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

“Every individual matters. Every individual has a role to play. Every individual makes a difference.”

– Jane Goodall

Is It Time For A Paycheck Checkup?

There’s no better time than the present to check your withholding status and make sure your paycheck accurately reflects the taxes you should be paying.

These paycheck checkups are a great practice when something happens in your life that may change your tax status, such as getting married or getting divorced, having a baby, getting a new job, or getting a raise or promotion at work. You can also adjust your withholding status if you want to change how much tax you withhold due to other circumstances.

During your paycheck checkup, you can also check other factors, such as how much you contribute to your health insurance or retirement plan. These expenses can also impact your tax liability.

*This information is not intended to substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov⁶

5-Minute Core-Strengthening Workout

Even if you only have a little time to dedicate to a core workout, this circuit will get you going and only takes 5 minutes. Here are the moves:

• 1-minute high plank: Your hands are on the ground, your arms are straight, and you are holding your body up with your arms and a tight core.
• 30-second side plank on each side: One hand is on the ground, your arm is straight, and the other is in the air. You can do a side plank with your feet stacked on each other (most demanding), your feet staggered (a little easier), or your bottom knee on the ground.
• 1-minute boat poses: Your feet are in the air, and your arms are by your side, reaching to your feet. You can pose with your legs bent (easier) or straight out (harder).
• 1-minute crunches: Lift your shoulders and upper back off the ground without pulling your neck.
• 1-minute dead bug: Lay on your back and alternate, extending out the opposite arm and the opposite leg simultaneously.

Tip adapted from Mind Body Green Movement⁷

Which of these five words doesn’t belong on this list: that, what, cat, sat, chat. 

Last week’s riddle: A man tells a friend that he married three women yesterday, which was legal. In fact, it was routine. How can he make such a statement? Answer: The man is a Justice of the Peace.

Footnotes And Sources

^{1. The Wall Street Journal, August 18, 2023}

^{2. The Wall Street Journal, August 18, 2023}

^{3. The Wall Street Journal, August 18, 2023}

^{4. CNBC, August 18, 2023}

^{5. The Wall Street Journal, August 15, 2023}

^{6. IRS.gov, April 10, 2023} 

^{7. Mind Body Green Movement, April 24, 2023}

^{Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.}

^{The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.}

^{The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.}

^{The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.}

^{U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.}

^{International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.}

^{Please consult your financial professional for additional information.}

^{This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.}

^{Copyright 2023 FMG Suite.}

Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose just 0.16 percent for the month, the lowest reading in more than two years and a significant downside break. There are a number of reasons why it was such a big deal, including:¹

• It was a downside surprise compared to the consensus estimate of 0.30%.
• On a YoY basis, 0.16% translates to 1.92% inflation on an annual basis. Whoa!
• It may give the Fed some flexibility with interest rates in the second half of 2023.
• June’s Producer Price Index, released the day after the June CPI report, rose less than expected, building on the optimism about inflation.

I don’t put too much weight on individual reports, so at this point, I’m looking for more information before drawing any conclusions about the economy, inflation, and interest rates.

Also, inflation is tricky, and people can have different experiences with rising prices depending on their spending habits. So please, contact me if you are concerned about inflation. Reports showing inflation is trending lower are great, but your experience with inflation matters most to me.

^{1. CNBC.com, July 13, 2023. “S&P 500 rises for a fourth day on more encouraging inflation data.”}

^{This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG Suite is not affiliated with the named broker-dealer, state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm.}

Positive inflation data failed to lift stocks from their August doldrums last week as economic data and a ratings downgrade soured investor sentiment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.62%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 slipped 0.31%. The Nasdaq Composite index fell 1.90% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, rose 0.50%.^1,2,3

Tech Weighs On Stocks

Stocks struggled last week, beginning on a strong note ahead of key inflation data and selling off mid-week in response to a downgrade of the banking sector by credit rating agency Moody’s and news of a steep drop in China’s exports. Emblematic of the week, stocks jumped to big gains following Thursday’s better-than-expected inflation report, only to evaporate as bond yields rose amid an auction of 30-year Treasury bonds.

Stocks have had difficulty sustaining traction with the loss of the technology’s leadership, which has propelled gains this year. The combination of higher yields and earnings that failed to validate tech’s elevated valuations has dragged the sector and the larger market.

Subdued Inflation

July’s inflation data reflected only moderate price pressures. Consumer prices increased by a modest 0.2%, which aligned with market expectations. In comparison, the annual inflation rate came in at 3.2%, slightly below consensus estimates–though higher than June’s annual increase of 3.0%. Core CPI (excludes food and energy) was particularly encouraging, rising at the slowest rate since October 2021.⁴ 

Producer prices painted a more mixed picture, coming in a bit higher than expected, rising 0.3% versus the expected 0.2% increase, though the year-over-year increase was just 0.8%. Core producer prices’ 12-month increase of 2.4% tied for the lowest since January 2021.⁵

This Week: Key Economic Data

Tuesday: Retail Sales.

Wednesday: Housing Starts. Industrial Production. FOMC Minutes.

Thursday: Index of Leading Economic Indicators. Jobless Claims.

^{Source: Econoday, August 11, 2023
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Tuesday: The Home Depot, Inc. (HD)

Wednesday: Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO), Target Corporation (TGT), The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX)

Thursday: Walmart, Inc. (WMT), Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT), Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST)

Friday: Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW), Deere & Company (DE)

^{Source: Zacks, August 11, 2023
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

“When things go wrong, you’ll find they usually go on getting worse for some time; but when things once start going right they often go on getting better.”

– C.S. Lewis

Is Child Support Or Alimony Considered Taxable Income?

Child support payments are not taxable income for the recipient or tax-deductible for the payer. Therefore, you should not include child support payments when calculating gross income for tax purposes.

On the other hand, alimony payments may be taxable income for the recipient and tax-deductible for the payer depending on the specific divorce or separation instrument. For divorce or separation instruments executed on or before December 31, 2018, alimony payments are generally taxable income for the recipient and tax-deductible for the payer. However, for divorce or separation instruments executed after December 31, 2018, or those executed before that date but later modified to repeal the deduction for alimony expressly, the payments are neither taxable income nor tax-deductible. In either case, when determining gross income for tax purposes, alimony payments received should be included or excluded based on the specific instrument.

*This information is not intended to substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov⁶

3 Yoga Poses For Beginners

The first pose is Downward-Facing Dog, used in most yoga practices. In it, you stack your arms under your shoulders, and your bottom is in the air with your back legs straight. Your body is in the shape of an upside-down “V.”

The next is Crescent Lunge. Stand in a forward lunge with one foot in front and bent. Your back leg is straight. Now, straighten your arms and lift them over your head; you often see this pose used in yoga flow classes.

Last, we have the Triangle pose. Step your feet apart (wider than your shoulders). Then, hinge at your hip and lean over your front leg. Reach down with the same arm in front and rest it on the floor or a yoga block.

Tip adapted from SELF Magazine⁷

A man tells a friend that he married three women yesterday, which was legal. In fact, it was routine. How can he make such a statement? 

Last week’s riddle: What has three feet yet cannot run or walk?Answer: A yard.

Footnotes And Sources

^{1. The Wall Street Journal, August 11, 2023}

^{2. The Wall Street Journal, August 11, 2023}

^{3. The Wall Street Journal, August 11, 2023}

^{4. CNBC, August 10, 2023}

^{5. CNBC, August 11, 2023}

^{6. IRS.gov, November 1, 2022} 

^{7. SELF Magazine, April 24, 2023}

^{Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.}

^{The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.}

^{The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.}

^{The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.}

^{U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.}

^{International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.}

^{Please consult your financial professional for additional information.}

^{This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.}

^{Copyright 2023 FMG Suite.}