Market Commentary | Elsass Financial Group

Market Commentary | August 3rd, 2026

by lportee53 | Aug 3, 2026 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

August 3rd, 2026

Week in Review

This week’s economic data continued to offer conflicting signals on growth, inflation, and labor market conditions. While some reports pointed toward moderation, others suggested areas of resilience, leaving the broader economic picture difficult to characterize.

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose 0.1% in June, below expectations and below the prior month’s 0.3% reading, suggesting underlying inflation pressures may be easing. However, the broader inflation picture remained less clear. The second quarter GDP Price Index accelerated to 6.3%, well above expectations and significantly higher than the prior quarter’s 3.6%. While the GDP Price Index is a less precise inflation measure than Core PCE, the sharp increase suggests inflationary pressures remain uneven across the economy.

Additional market signals were also mixed. University of Michigan inflation expectations improved, with one-year expectations falling to 4.2% from 4.6% in the prior month. At the same time, Treasury auctions across the 2-, 5-, and 7-year portions of the curve cleared at higher yields than the prior month, suggesting investors may not be fully convinced inflation risks have been eliminated.

Consumer and Business Activity

Several reports pointed toward moderating economic activity. Core Durable Goods Orders increased 0.6%, below expectations and the prior month’s 1.8% reading. Consumer Confidence weakened for a second consecutive month, while Personal Spending rose 0.3%, slowing from the prior month’s 0.9% increase. While none of these reports point to a sharp decline in activity, they suggest consumers and businesses may be becoming more cautious.

Labor Market

Labor market data remained relatively constructive. Continuing Jobless Claims declined for a fourth consecutive week to 1.782 million, suggesting labor market conditions remain stable despite softer readings elsewhere in the economy.

Federal Open Market Committee

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left interest rates unchanged as widely expected. Similar to the mixed signals markets received this past week, recent economic reports have not pointed to a single clear narrative for the economy. Instead, the data continues to provide evidence that can support differing views on growth, inflation, and the appropriate path for monetary policy. As a result, investors are likely to remain highly focused on incoming economic releases as they assess the future direction of interest rates.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

Next week’s economic calendar will provide investors with several important updates on manufacturing activity, inflation pressures, and labor market conditions. Manufacturing data will be a primary focus, with both the ISM Manufacturing Index and S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) scheduled for release. While the headline readings will be closely watched, investors may place greater emphasis on the employment and prices sub-indexes for clues regarding hiring trends and inflationary pressures within the sector.

The services side of the economy will also receive attention through the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index and S&P Global Services PMI. Given the outsized role the services sector plays in overall economic activity, markets will be looking for signs of either continued expansion or broadening economic moderation.

Labor market data will remain a key theme throughout the week. Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report will provide insight into labor demand, hiring activity, and overall labor market tightness. Additional employment data arrives on Friday with Nonfarm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, U6 unemployment rate, and labor force participation rate. Together, these reports could play an important role in shaping expectations for economic growth and monetary policy.

Investors will also receive preliminary readings on non-farm productivity and unit labor costs. These reports sit at the intersection of inflation and employment, as stronger productivity can support wage growth without necessarily generating additional inflationary pressures. Construction Spending data will round out the week’s releases, offering another measure of business and economic activity, though the report is often subject to meaningful revisions.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.0825-2910

Market Commentary | July 27th, 2026

by lportee53 | Jul 27, 2026 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

July 27th, 2026

Week in Review

Economic data released during the week pointed to continued economic expansion, supported by a resilient labor market and improving business activity, though inflationary pressures and housing affordability challenges remained important areas of focus.

Labor market data continued to highlight underlying strength. Initial jobless claims fell to 187,000, down from 209,000 the prior week, marking the lowest level in decades. The decline reinforced the view that labor market conditions remain healthy. Continued labor market resilience should help support consumer spending and broader economic activity.

Business activity strengthened during the month. Preliminary July Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data showed Composite PMI rising to 53.6 from 51.9 in June, reaching its highest level in eight months. Services activity remained the primary driver of growth, while July Manufacturing PMI eased slightly from the prior month but remained in expansion territory with a reading of 53.8. The data suggested the economy entered the second half of the year with solid momentum, supported by continued demand across much of the private sector.

Energy market data provided a mixed signal on inflation pressures. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.0 million barrels during the week, reversing expectations for a decline. While higher inventory levels may help reduce upward pressure on energy prices in the near term, overall stockpiles remain below historical averages, indicating supply conditions remain relatively tight.

Housing data suggested conditions remain challenged but stable. New home sales increased 1.6% in June to an annualized pace of 628,000 units, improving from 618,000 in May. This increase suggests housing demand remains resilient despite elevated mortgage rates, providing evidence that buyers continue to adapt to higher borrowing costs. While activity remains below the stronger pace seen in recent years, the report indicated the housing market may be gradually finding footing.

Overall, the week’s data reflected an economy that continues to expand at a moderate pace. Strong labor market conditions and improving business activity remain supportive of growth, while inflation and housing affordability continue to present challenges that policymakers and investors will monitor closely.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

Markets head into the final week of July focused on several key releases that will help shape expectations for economic growth, inflation, and monetary policy.

The week begins with durable goods orders, which will provide insight into business investment and manufacturing demand. Investors will be watching for signs that capital spending remains resilient despite continued uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook.

Consumer confidence will also be in focus following recent evidence of steady household spending. A stronger reading would suggest consumers remain confident in labor market and economic conditions, while any deterioration could raise concerns about the sustainability of consumer demand.

The Federal Reserve’s policy announcement on Wednesday will serve as the week’s most closely watched event. While no change in interest rates is expected, markets will focus on policymakers’ assessment of inflation, labor market conditions and the potential path of future policy decisions.

Thursday will feature several important releases, highlighted by the advance estimate of second-quarter GDP, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, and initial jobless claims. GDP will provide the first broad assessment of economic growth during the quarter and help investors gauge the underlying strength of the economy. The Core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, will be closely monitored for signs that price pressures continue to moderate. Markets will also watch initial jobless claims for evidence that labor market conditions remain healthy and layoffs remain limited.

The week concludes with the Chicago PMI and the final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data for July. Chicago PMI will be closely watched for clues on manufacturing activity ahead of the national ISM report, while consumer sentiment and inflation expectations will provide further insight into the outlook for household spending and inflation.

Overall, the week’s data should help clarify whether economic growth remains resilient, inflation continues to moderate and labor market conditions remain supportive. These releases will play an important role in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve and the broader economic outlook during the second half of the year.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.0726-2797

Market Commentary | July 20th, 2026

by lportee53 | Jul 20, 2026 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

July 20th, 2026

Week in Review

The week’s most closely watched economic release came on Tuesday with the June Consumer Price Index (CPI). Headline CPI declined 0.4% month-over-month, the largest monthly decrease since April 2020, while the annual inflation rate slowed to 3.5%, down from 4.2% in May. Core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy categories, remained flat on the month and increased 2.6% year-over-year. The sharp decline in headline inflation was largely driven by a 5.7% drop in energy prices, particularly gasoline, which more than offset continued strength in shelter and services inflation. For markets, the report reinforced the disinflation narrative and substantially reduced expectations of additional Federal Reserve tightening. The combination of moderating inflation and still-positive economic growth increased confidence that inflationary pressures are easing, providing the Federal Reserve with greater flexibility as it evaluates the appropriate path for monetary policy.

On Wednesday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) provided additional evidence that inflationary pressures at the wholesale level continue to moderate. Headline PPI fell 0.3% month-over-month, marking the largest monthly decline in 14 months, while core PPI – excluding food, energy, and trade services – rose a modest 0.1%. Similar to the CPI report, declining energy costs were the primary driver behind the softer reading, although pricing pressures tied to AI-related goods and services remained elevated. The report indicates businesses are facing fewer input cost pressures, reducing the likelihood that higher production costs will be passed through to consumers in the months ahead. Taken together with Tuesday’s CPI report, the data support the view that inflation is moving in the right direction, even as certain sectors remain resilient.

Also on Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories declined by 1.7 million barrels for the week ending July 10. Although inventories continued to fall during the peak summer driving season, the draw was smaller than market expectations of roughly 2.6 million barrels, suggesting that supply conditions remain relatively balanced despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. A continued decline in inventories generally reflects healthy demand or constrained supply, but the smaller-than-expected draw indicates that oil markets have not tightened as rapidly as many investors had anticipated. Looking ahead, renewed disruptions in global energy markets remain a key upside risk to inflation.

On Thursday, the June Retail Sales report showed that consumer spending remained resilient despite a softer headline figure. Retail sales increased 0.2% month-over-month, the slowest pace of growth in five months, largely reflecting lower gasoline prices that reduced receipts at service stations. However, the closely watched control group, which feeds directly into GDP calculations, rose a stronger 0.5%, indicating that underlying consumer demand remains healthy. Given that consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, the report suggests household demand continues to support economic growth despite elevated interest rates. The data reinforce expectations for a solid second-quarter GDP reading and indicate that domestic demand remains on stable footing.

Also on Thursday, initial jobless claims came in at 208,000, down from 216,000 the previous week and below expectations of approximately 218,000. The decline to a two-month low suggests layoffs remain limited and the labor market continues to show resilience despite a moderating pace of economic growth. Combined with this week’s other economic data, the report reinforces the view that inflation is easing while consumer demand and labor market conditions remain supportive of continued growth.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

The week begins on Wednesday with the release of the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories report. This weekly release measures the change in U.S. commercial crude oil stockpiles and provides insight into the balance between energy supply and demand. Because energy prices are a key driver of inflation, investors closely monitor inventory trends for their potential impact on oil prices and inflation expectations.

On Thursday, the Department of Labor will release initial jobless claims, one of the most timely indicators of labor market health. The report tracks new filings for unemployment benefits and serves as an early gauge of layoffs. Markets watch the trend in claims for signs of either continued labor market resilience or emerging weakness.

Also on Thursday, S&P Global will publish the preliminary Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reports for July. These surveys measure business activity across the manufacturing and services sectors, with readings above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 indicating contraction. As some of the first economic data released each month, the PMIs provide an early read on business activity, hiring, and pricing trends.

The week’s final major release comes on Friday with new home sales, which measures the annualized pace of newly constructed homes sold during the prior month. As one of the most interest rate-sensitive sectors of the economy, the report offers insight into housing demand, consumer confidence, and the impact of higher borrowing costs on economic activity.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.0726-2687

Market Commentary | July 13th, 2026

by lportee53 | Jul 13, 2026 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

July 13th, 2026

Week in Review

The week of July 6, 2026, was marked by several U.S. economic releases that pointed to continued economic resilience, while also showing pockets of moderation across services activity, housing, and energy inventories. Investors focused on service-sector data, labor market conditions, Treasury auctions, and Federal Reserve communications for additional insight into the broader economic backdrop.

Service-sector activity remained in expansion territory, although June readings came in slightly below expectations. The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) registered 51.2 compared to expectations of 51.3, while the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.0 versus expectations of 54.2. While both readings modestly missed consensus, levels above 50 continue to indicate expansion. Inflation pressures within the services sector remained notable, as the ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Index decreased to 67.7, yet remained slightly above expectations of 67.5.

Other economic data was mixed. Initial jobless claims declined to 215,000, below expectations of 218,000, suggesting that labor market conditions remained relatively firm during the week. Existing home sales, however, came in below expectations at 4.09 million versus forecasts of 4.19 million, indicating continued softness in housing activity. Crude oil inventories also increased by 2.998 million barrels, compared to expectations for a 1.900-million-barrel drawdown.

The Federal Reserve remained in focus through the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes and the Fed Monetary Policy Report. Treasury market activity included a 10-Year Note auction at 4.580% and a 30-Year Bond auction at 5.058%. Overall, the week’s data supported the view that the U.S. economy remains stable, though persistent services inflation and uneven housing data continue to warrant monitoring.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

The upcoming week should provide investors with a clearer picture of whether the U.S. economy can maintain its recent momentum. Inflation data will be the primary focus, as both consumer and producer price reports will help determine whether pricing pressures are continuing to ease or remain stubborn enough to keep the Federal Reserve cautious on future rate decisions.

Beyond inflation, several reports will offer insight into the health of the consumer, which remains the key driver of economic growth. Retail sales data will help gauge whether households continue to spend despite a higher interest rate environment or are becoming more selective with discretionary purchases. At the same time, weekly jobless claims will provide an updated view of labor market conditions and whether employment trends remain supportive of consumer demand.

Investors will also be monitoring crude oil inventory data for signals on energy demand and potential impacts on fuel prices, while the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will offer another look at business activity and economic momentum.

Overall, this week’s releases should help answer three key questions: Is inflation continuing to cool, are consumers still willing to spend, and does economic growth remain resilient as the second half of the year begins? Those answers will likely play an important role in shaping market expectations for Federal Reserve policy and the broader economic outlook.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.

Market Commentary | July 6th, 2026

by lportee53 | Jul 6, 2026 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

July 6th, 2026

Week in Review

Last week’s economic releases reinforced a familiar theme: growth continues, but momentum is becoming increasingly mixed beneath the surface. Labor market indicators remained relatively resilient, manufacturing activity stayed in expansion, and consumer sentiment showed signs of stabilization despite lingering caution.

Labor Market: Resilient but Losing Momentum

Labor market data delivered a mixed message. The May Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report showed job openings unexpectedly increased and came in above both expectations and the prior month’s reading, suggesting demand for labor remained healthy heading into June.

However, June’s employment report pointed to slower hiring activity. Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 57,000 jobs, well below expectations and a notable step down from the prior month’s revised gain. The softer payroll figure may indicate employers are becoming more cautious as economic uncertainty persists.

At the same time, unemployment measures improved modestly. The headline unemployment rate declined from 4.3 percent to 4.2 percent, while the broader U6 measure fell from 8.1 percent to 7.9 percent. Taken together, the data suggest labor market conditions remain stable, though evidence of renewed acceleration remains limited.

Manufacturing: Expansion Continues but Momentum Softens

Manufacturing data continued to point toward expansion but with signs of moderation. The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) exceeded expectations at 56.7, though it fell meaningfully from May’s strong reading of 62.7, suggesting business activity remains healthy but has cooled from recent highs.

National surveys echoed a similar theme. The final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was revised lower from its preliminary estimate, while the ISM Manufacturing survey showed modest softening in new orders. Even so, manufacturing employment improved from 48.6 to 49.7, moving closer to neutral, and suggesting firms may be becoming less cautious regarding hiring plans.

One encouraging development came from the ISM prices index, which fell sharply from 82.1 to 73.0 and came in below expectations. While still elevated, the decline suggests manufacturing-related price pressures eased during the month.

Consumer Sentiment: Stability Emerging

Consumer confidence came in below expectations but improved modestly from the prior month’s revised level. While households remain cautious, sentiment has largely moved sideways in recent months rather than continuing to deteriorate.

The report reflects an economy where consumers remain concerned about affordability and uncertainty yet have not become materially more pessimistic. For now, stabilization appears to be the more meaningful trend than either improvement or decline.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

This week’s calendar will provide investors with additional insight into the health of the services sector, inflation expectations, and broader economic activity. Following last week’s mixed labor market data, markets will be looking for evidence as to whether growth is merely moderating or beginning to slow more meaningfully.

Services Sector: Can Growth Hold Up?

Monday’s S&P Global Services PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will offer an important update on the largest segment of the U.S. economy. Given the services sector’s outsized contribution to economic activity, investors will be watching closely to see whether business sentiment and demand remain resilient.

Particular attention will be paid to the employment and prices subindexes. With June payroll growth coming in below expectations, markets will be looking for signs that hiring demand remains intact. At the same time, investors will monitor pricing activity to determine whether recent improvements in manufacturing-related inflation pressures are beginning to spread more broadly throughout the economy.

Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy

The New York Fed’s Consumer Inflation Expectations Survey on Tuesday will provide insight into how households view the future path of inflation. While temporary supply disruptions can impact prices in the short term, longer-term inflation expectations often play a critical role in determining whether those pressures become more persistent.

Markets will also receive the minutes from the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. While the economic data discussed during the meeting is now somewhat dated, investors will look for additional insight into how committee members assessed the balance between inflation risks and labor market conditions, as well as any signs of emerging disagreement regarding the future path of monetary policy.

Housing and Energy

Existing home sales will provide an early look at housing market activity during June and may offer additional clues regarding consumer confidence in making long-term financial commitments.

Markets will also monitor the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Companies (OPEC) meeting and the IEA Monthly Oil Market Report for updates on global supply conditions. Following recent geopolitical tensions and concerns surrounding energy-driven inflation, investors will be watching for signs that oil markets are stabilizing and that supply risks are beginning to ease.

Disclosures and Definitions

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.0726-2498

Market Commentary | June 29th, 2026

by lportee53 | Jun 29, 2026 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

June 29th, 2026

Week in Review

The week’s data reinforced a backdrop of steady but uneven economic growth, though several areas continue to show signs of moderation under tighter financial conditions.

Preliminary June Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data pointed to stronger-than-expected business activity. Manufacturing PMI improved to 55.7 from the prior reading of 55.1, exceeding expectations and signaling continued strength in the industrial side of the economy. Services PMI came in at 51.3, slightly above expectations, reflecting modest expansion. Overall growth remains intact based on this data, though stronger manufacturing activity alongside slower services growth highlights an uneven expansion.

Housing data showed renewed softness. New home sales for May declined to 580,000 from 626,000 in April and fell well short of expectations. The decline reflects ongoing affordability challenges tied to elevated mortgage rates and reinforces that housing remains a pocket of weakness within the U.S. economy.

Inflation data continued to show gradual progress. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) for May rose 0.3% month-over-month, in line with expectations, while the year-over-year inflation rate held at 3.4%. This indicates that underlying price pressures remain elevated relative to the Fed’s 2% target, and progress toward price stability continues at a gradual pace. Inflation also appears to be stabilizing rather than accelerating, reinforcing a higher-for-longer policy outlook.

Durable goods orders declined by 4.5% in May following a strong prior month, a smaller drop than expected. The pullback was driven largely by volatility in transportation orders, particularly aircraft. However, underlying trends were more constructive, with orders excluding transportation and core capital goods both increasing. This suggests that business investment remains stable despite variability in the headline figure.

Labor market data remained a source of strength. Initial jobless claims came in at 215,000, below expectations and consistent with a labor market that remains healthy. Layoffs continue to be limited, supporting the view that employment conditions are stable even as hiring momentum shows signs of slowing.

Overall, the latest data present a mixed view of the economy. Activity remains supported in several areas, though the pace of growth appears uneven across sectors. Labor market conditions continue to show stability, while housing and some measures of business investment reflect more sensitivity to current conditions. In aggregate, the data highlights an economic backdrop that remains intact but lacks uniform strength heading into the second half of the year.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

The upcoming week is shortened by the July 4 holiday but still brings several important releases that will help shape the outlook for growth, labor market conditions, and business activity heading into the second half of the year.

Tuesday’s releases include the June consumer confidence report and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report. Consumer confidence will be closely watched to see how households are responding to still-elevated prices and borrowing costs. JOLTS job openings are expected to edge lower, pointing to a gradual cooling in labor demand, remaining consistent with a relatively tight labor market.

On Wednesday, the focus will shift to employment and manufacturing. The ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for June should provide an early read on private-sector hiring, with expectations for moderate job growth. ISM manufacturing PMI for June is projected to ease slightly but remain in expansion territory, offering a clearer view on whether recent strength in manufacturing activity is holding or beginning to moderate.

Thursday turns to the June employment report. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to reflect a step down in hiring from the prior month, while the unemployment rate is projected to remain broadly stable. Wage growth will also be closely monitored for signs of persistent labor market tightness. Together, the data will help determine whether labor conditions are continuing to cool gradually or showing signs of a more meaningful slowdown.

Overall, the week should further clarify the current macro narrative. Consumer sentiment and job openings will offer additional clarity on labor market trends, while ISM manufacturing will offer further insight into the trajectory of industrial activity.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.0626-2443