Blog | Elsass Financial Group

Market Commentary | March 30th, 2026

by lportee53 | Mar 30, 2026 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

March 30th, 2026

Week in Review

It was a short and relatively light week for economic data, but the releases still provided a useful snapshot of the economy. The main focus was the March flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data, where S&P Global Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4 from 51.6, coming in above consensus of 51.3. That suggested factory activity remained in expansion and held up better than expected. On the services side, Flash U.S. Services PMI slipped to 51.1 from 51.7, coming in below expectations of 51.5. The softer services reading pulled the Composite PMI down to 51.4 from 51.9, its lowest level in nearly a year. The overall takeaway was a mixed but still positive one: manufacturing showed resilience, while services lost some momentum, pointing to continued growth but with a less broad-based foundation.

Labor data was also steady. Initial jobless claims rose by 5,000 to 210,000 for the week, broadly in line with expectations, while continuing claims fell by 32,000 to 1.819 million. That combination still points to a labor market that is cooling only gradually. Claims remain low by historical standards, and the drop in continuing claims suggests layoffs are still fairly contained, even if hiring demand is not especially strong. In other words, the labor backdrop continues to look more like “low-hire, low-fire” than outright deterioration.

Energy was another important piece of the week’s macro story. U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose by 6.9 million barrels, a much larger build than markets had anticipated. Normally, a large inventory build would imply softer demand or stronger supply, but this release landed in the context of an oil market still shaped by broader geopolitical and supply concerns. As a result, the data provided some near-term offset but did not fully remove inflation concerns tied to elevated energy prices. That remains important for the broader macro picture, since higher oil prices can pressure both consumers and business input costs.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

The week ahead is more important, with several releases that should help clarify whether the economy is merely moderating or beginning to lose momentum more meaningfully. Chicago PMI will matter as an early read on business activity and whether the recent firmness in manufacturing is extending beyond the flash survey. Consumer Confidence will also be important because sentiment can influence spending behavior, especially when households are facing higher energy costs and broader uncertainty. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report should provide another read on whether labor demand is continuing to normalize in an orderly way or whether hiring appetite is fading more decisively.

Later in the week, Retail Sales will be watched closely as a direct gauge of consumer demand. Since household spending remains the main engine of U.S. growth, this release will help markets judge whether consumers are still absorbing higher costs or becoming more cautious. Finally, Nonfarm Payrolls will likely be the key macro release of the week. More than any single series, payrolls help frame the broader balance between labor-market resilience, income support, and the economy’s ability to keep expanding without a sharper slowdown. Altogether, next week’s data should provide a much clearer read on the durability of demand and the degree to which slowing growth is becoming more visible in the hard data.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.0326.1139

Market Commentary | March 23rd, 2026

by lportee53 | Mar 23, 2026 | Market Commentary, Weekly

Weekly Market Commentary

March 23rd, 2026

Iran War Update

The U.S./Israel conflict with Iran has continued to cause significant volatility within markets, and given this, we felt it was important to provide an additional update. Given the importance of the Middle East from an economic perspective, a prolonged conflict would pose significant economic damage to the global economy. Unfortunately, it appears that we are entering a heightened escalation phase, with reports of strikes on critical energy infrastructure and continued disruptions to shipping lanes, while the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly choked off.

While not a perfect measure of what is to come, prediction markets like Polymarket may offer a real-time snapshot of investment sentiment and collective expectations. As can be seen in the chart below, percentage odds of a durable ceasefire do not become likely before June, according to this system today.

Source: Polymarket (as of March 19, 2026)

Energy analysts broadly agree that sustained shipping disruptions or extensive damage to energy infrastructure would push energy prices, constrain discretionary demand, elevate input costs, and weigh on marginal growth. The global benchmark price for crude oil has risen to nearly $110 per barrel, nearly doubling since the start of the year. According to AAA, national gasoline prices have also risen from $2.82 at the start of the year to $3.91 as of March 19, 2026. The administration has attempted to counter some of these price increases with an announcement of 172 million barrels of oil to be released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) over the coming weeks and months. The market has largely looked through this announcement though, viewing the release as limited and insufficient to offset sustained supply disruptions. The U.S. (and other allies that have pledged releases) picture is complicated by the fact that the SPR was drawn down in the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine war and has not been meaningfully rebuilt in the years since that conflict began.

Source: Bloomberg (as of February 28, 2026)

How this war affects the economy in the coming quarters is still coming into view, but rates markets are beginning to question the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut rates in this environment. In fact, markets are pricing in a 27% chance of an interest rate hike, a scenario that was assigned a 0% probability just one week ago.

We have felt for some time that additional rate cuts are justified, so seeing the likelihood of additional rate cuts fade gives us pause. With that said, recent reviews of real-time estimates of GDP growth are still solidly positive, and as we mentioned in our 2026 Market Outlook the global economy enjoys several tailwinds that should keep it from slipping into recession even if important commodity prices remain elevated.

We should also note that wartime conditions necessitate significant government spending to be sustained, which also automatically boosts GDP as well. This conflict is no different, as it is being reported that the White House is requesting an additional $200 billion in funding related to war with Iran.

With respect to markets, it is also important to note that the U.S. is a modest net energy exporter, largely due to shale oil and natural gas production, which provides some insulation from global energy shocks. In contrast, European and Asian countries are highly exposed to a Middle East energy shock. The chart below lays out these relationships, and countries more situated towards the top right are more exposed. Notably, large economies like Germany, Japan, and Taiwan are among the more exposed. Interestingly, China is far more insulated than other large Asian countries.

Equity markets have reacted to these realities accordingly, as U.S. equities have outperformed international stocks by nearly 5% since the start of the war. With that said, international equities still lead U.S. stocks for the year-to-date period through March 19. This highlights the importance of maintaining diversification and sticking with a long-term investment strategy. This is especially important in the face of difficult headlines and elevated market volatility.

While we have not recommended any large changes to allocations as a result of recent market movements, we are watching the increased levels of market pessimism among equity investors to see if there is an opportunity. Historically, periods of geopolitical uncertainty have often created short‑term valuation dislocations rather than long‑term earnings impairment. Therefore, price declines across the major indexes would represent lower valuations, a welcome change in our view as equities had become overpriced in many cases.

We share our asset class recommendations and notes below, which will have more detail on these items in our upcoming quarterly investment update report. As always, we hope this information is helpful, and please contact the Cambridge Due Diligence Team (duediligence@cir2.com) at 800-777-6080 for questions.

Equities	Current Weighting	Outlook
U.S. Large Cap	Neutral	Excellent fundamental outlook and technical backdrop given large ongoing buybacks. High concentration of the largest names and high valuations keep us neutral on this asset class. We favor high quality, defensive investments and certain sectors like healthcare and financial stocks.
U.S. Mid and Small Cap	Neutral	Modest valuations and falling interest rates should provide a tailwind to investors here. We currently recommend a neutral weight but might look to change to overweight as the year progresses.
EAFE	Neutral	Japanese equities look interesting, and the currency diversification into Yen and Euros could still provide a tailwind. Weak European growth and worrisome trends in sovereign yields keep us neutral.
EM	Neutral	Some of the lowest equity market valuations available to investors. There are still economic risks in China that keep us neutral here, as it represents the largest country weight in the index.

Duration	Current Weighting	Outlook
Treasuries	Underweight	While rates are solidly positive across the yield curve, huge potential net new Treasury supply and continuing refinancing needs keep us modestly short duration relative to benchmark expressed primarily through a Treasury underweight.
IG Corporates	Underweight	Narrow spreads keep us underweight this segment despite our economic outlook. If spreads normalize we will look to upgrade our outlook.
Agency Mortgages	Overweight	Wide spreads relative to both Treasuries and high-quality corporate bonds make this our preferred way to obtain duration exposure. We expect technical buying pressure to continue into 2026 as institutional investors rebuild allocations here.
Munis	Neutral	Ratios of yields between AAA munis and Treasuries have normalized. There is also only modest amounts of spread to be gained by reducing the quality profile of a muni portfolio today. Term spreads, the difference between long and short-term municipal bonds, are solid, providing investors an opportunity barbell exposures to produce additional yield.

Credit	Current Weighting	Outlook
High Yield	Neutral	Fundamental changes to the index with respect to quality composition and duration, along with our economic outlook means we expect defaults to remain subdued. Relatively narrow spreads keep us from an overweight recommendation in this asset class.
Leveraged Loans	Underweight	Years of poor underwriting standards along with potential technical selling pressure from retail investors makes us maintain an underweight recommendation here despite our economic outlook.
Structured Credit	Overweight	Structured credit remains our favored way to gain credit exposure, as this segment offers solid yields with modest credit and duration risk. Our favorite segments within this asset class include Non-Agency RMBS and CMBS, as the collateral values for both are likely to rise in 2026, improving their respective credit quality.

Alternatives	Current Weighting	Outlook
Private Equity	Overweight	Reinvigorated capital markets should promote portfolio realizations and returns. Our economic outlook, combined with lower borrowing costs leads us to believe these asset classes should provide total return that outperforms public markets. Manager selection is key here.
Private Debt	Neutral	We have seen some concerning defaults in this arena, along with some concern around underwriting standards. However, we still think this asset class will deliver solid liquid returns even as there has been softness in broader bond markets. We expect the private debt market to continue to grow. Like private equity, manager selection is key.

Week in Review

Over the course of the week, markets digested a variety of U.S. economic releases as well as the Federal Reserve meeting. Investors focused on the durability of economic growth amid persistent inflation risks.

The focal point of the week was the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where the Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. However, the tone of the meeting was more hawkish and both headline and core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation forecasts were raised to 2.7%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that inflation progress has been slower than expected among elevated uncertainty stemming from energy prices and geopolitical tensions.

The February Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.7% month-over-month, well above consensus expectations and accelerating from January’s 0.5% increase. For investors, this reinforced concerns that inflation pressures remain persistent at the wholesale level. Core inflation also remained firm, rising by 0.5% over the month. This is closely watched by policymakers as an indicator of more durable inflation pressures that may eventually pass through to consumer prices.

Manufacturing data showed renewed momentum. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index rose to 18.1, well above expectations. This gain was driven by a sharp rebound in shipments, with new orders easing but remaining positive. Forward-looking manufacturing expectations remain elevated, highlighting ongoing optimism even as cost pressures and global uncertainties increase.

Housing data provided mixed signals. Residential construction improved as housing starts rebounded, driven primarily by an increase in multifamily projects. On the other hand, single-family construction remained subdued due to ongoing affordability constraints and elevated mortgage rates. New home sales also fell sharply to an annualized pace of 587,000 units, the lowest level in more than three years. This slowdown reflects the continued strain on housing demand due to affordability challenges and volatile mortgage rates.

Labor market data showed signs of stabilization. Weekly initial jobless claims fell to 205,000, the lowest reading since January. This supports the view of a labor market characterized by limited hiring and limited layoffs. Continuing claims remain subdued, indicating that layoffs remain contained even as hiring momentum eases.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

The upcoming week will include multiple economic releases that will refine investor expectations for growth, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy.

Tuesday will include the release of both the U.S. Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), offering an early read on economic activity over March. The Manufacturing PMI will be watched for confirmation that strength in regional factory surveys is translating to the national level. The Services PMI will be monitored for signs that consumer demand remains intact despite elevated prices and borrowing costs.

On Wednesday, the February import and export price indexes will be watched for signals on pipeline inflation. Investors will be assessing the pass-through of higher energy costs, tariffs, and currency effects into domestic pricing. Firm readings could reinforce recent economic readings reflecting persistent cost pressures.

On Thursday, initial and continuing jobless claims will provide a signal on employment stability. Low claims could reinforce the view that layoffs remain contained, even as firms stay cautious about adding new workers.

The week will conclude with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, including inflation expectations. This survey will be closely watched by investors and policymakers, as elevated expectations could support the Federal Reserve’s cautious, data-driven policy stance.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

Market Commentary | March 16th, 2026

by lportee53 | Mar 16, 2026 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

March 16th, 2026

Week in Review

Last week delivered a concentrated set of U.S. economic data that helped refine expectations around growth, inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s policy path. While housing data showed tentative improvement, inflation measures and revised growth figures reinforced a cautious macro backdrop.

Housing activity provided one of the brighter spots. February Existing Home Sales rose to an annualized pace of 4.09 million, exceeding expectations and improving modestly from January. The improvement suggests that demand may be stabilizing despite elevated mortgage rates, supported by limited inventory and steady household formation. While affordability constraints remain, the data points to reduced downside risk in the housing sector in the near term.

Inflation readings were largely in line with consensus but continued to highlight persistence beneath the surface. The February Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% month‑over‑month, while core CPI increased 0.2%. On a year‑over‑year basis, headline inflation held at 2.4%. While these readings did not materially shift inflation expectations, they reinforced the view that progress toward the Federal Reserve’s target is occurring gradually, particularly as services inflation remains firm.

The GDP report was a notable development. Q4 GDP growth was revised down to 0.7% on a quarter‑over‑quarter basis, a meaningful reduction from prior estimates. The revision points to softer underlying momentum entering 2026 and underscores the impact of restrictive financial conditions on growth, even as consumer spending has remained relatively resilient.

Labor market indicators remained stable. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 213,000, consistent with recent levels and signaling limited signs of labor market stress. Inflation pressures remained evident in the Fed’s preferred measure, with core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation holding at 0.4% month‑over‑month and 3.1% year‑over‑year. Meanwhile, durable goods orders were flat, suggesting subdued momentum in business investment.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

The week ahead will be dominated by Federal Reserve policy decisions, along with additional data on inflation, labor, manufacturing, and housing.

Wednesday is the focal point. The February Producer Price Index (PPI) will provide insight into pipeline inflation pressures, particularly across services and core goods categories. This will be followed by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, updated economic projections, and Chair Powell’s press conference. While no change in policy is expected, investors will closely scrutinize revisions to inflation and growth forecasts, as well as any shifts in the projected policy-rate path.

Thursday brings another update on labor market conditions with Initial Jobless Claims, which will be monitored for signs of emerging weakness. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will offer a timely read on regional manufacturing activity, new orders, and pricing pressures. New Home Sales will also be released, providing a complementary view of housing demand following the improvement seen in existing home sales.

Finally, Chair Powell is scheduled to speak on Saturday. Markets will be attentive to any further clarification on the Fed’s reaction function following the policy meeting, particularly regarding the balance between slowing growth and persistent inflation pressures.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

Market Commentary | March 9th, 2026

by lportee53 | Mar 9, 2026 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

March 9th, 2026

Week in Review

Last week delivered many important macroeconomic releases, giving investors insight into an evolving U.S. economic landscape. In addition, the conflict in Iran has escalated dramatically, adding significant economic concerns.

Manufacturing data reflected moderate expansion. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 51.6, slightly above the 51.2 forecast, marking the seventh consecutive month of expansion. However, this was down from January’s reading of 53.4, signaling softer momentum and less new orders. For investors, this reinforces a narrative of sluggish industrial activity.

ADP Nonfarm Employment increased by 63,000 in February, above the consensus estimate of 50,000. This growth within the private sector was concentrated in construction, education, and health services. The upside surprise here suggests that labor cooling remains gradual, tempering expectations of imminent Federal Reserve easing.

The S&P Global Services PMI for February came in at 51.7, lower than the 52.3 expected. This decline was due to slower new orders, weaker export demand, and difficult trading conditions. However, the services sector continued to grow, with ISM Services PMI reporting a reading of 54.0, the 20^th consecutive month of expansion.

The headline payrolls print was the largest shock of the week. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000, far below the expected increase of 58,000, with unemployment rising to 4.4%. This raises concerns about labor-market softening, though wage growth has remained firm, complicating Federal Reserve policy expectations.

War in Iran

On the geopolitical front, joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28, 2026, targeting senior leadership, nuclear infrastructure, missile sites and strategic military assets. The Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in these strikes. Iran has retaliated with sustained missile and drone attacks targeting U.S. bases, Israel and Gulf nations allied with the U.S. President Trump has signaled that the campaign against Iran will continue for “as long as it takes.”

Iran has moved to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz, severely restricting a waterway responsible for roughly 20% of global oil and natural gas shipments. Traffic has dropped by more than 80%, with major firms suspending operations and insurers withdrawing coverage. This has led to oil markets pricing in a multi-week disruption. In addition, Qatar’s energy minister Saad al-Kaabi, said the ongoing conflict could force Gulf oil exporters to halt production within days.

Effects of this conflict have been felt almost immediately. On Friday, WTI oil prices surged 12% to $90.90 a barrel, and Brent oil rose 8.5% to $92.69 a barrel. Weekly gains were 36% for WTI and 27% for Brent, the largest percentage increases on record since 1983 and 1991, respectively. Large increases in the price of crude oil have in turn pushed gasoline prices higher, as well. These price increases have rekindled inflation fears, and markets have begun to reduce bets that the Federal Reserve will ease rates further despite the weakness in this week’s jobs report.

This conflict is broader and more intense than prior Iran flare-ups. Analysts suggest the war could last up to eight weeks, but if history is any guide this conflict can last far longer than most expect. With that said, even a short conflict could lead to lasting market dislocation. If the strait remains impaired, oil prices may rise further, threatening global growth. Overall, the conflict remains highly unstable, and we believe markets will continue to price in elevated geopolitical risk until a clear path toward de-escalation emerges.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

The week ahead will include many data releases, with a focus on housing, inflation, trade and consumer sentiment. This data will be used by investors to shape market sentiment and interest rate expectations. Investors will also be watching for any developments regarding the conflict in Iran.

Existing Home Sales on Tuesday will provide a key read on housing demand. February’s sales volume will provide a gauge on the effects of shifting mortgage rates and affordability pressures. Any signs of stabilization could support a firmer outlook for household formation and related sectors.

Wednesday will bring the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, a closely watched release. With inflation being a primary driver of Federal Reserve policy, investors will dissect both headline and core components. Markets will be looking for confirmation that disinflation trends are durable, especially within the shelter and services sectors.

Thursday will bring the U.S. trade balance, which will provide clarity on external demand dynamics. Investors will focus on the breakdown between the goods and services trade and hope for stabilization after months of global softness. This can also influence the tracking estimates of first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP).

Friday is the busiest day of the week, with several important releases. January Personal Income and Spending, Q4 GDP (second estimate) and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for March. These indicators will provide updated insight into income growth, real spending trends, and consumer attitudes as elevated borrowing costs continue to influence household behavior. The GDP update will also refine views on late-2025 momentum.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

Market Commentary | March 2nd, 2026

by lportee53 | Mar 2, 2026 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

March 2nd, 2026

Week in Review

Last week’s economic data began on Tuesday with the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rising to 91.2, up from 89.0 in the prior release. The improvement reflected stronger expectations around income and employment prospects, suggesting that households are becoming slightly more optimistic about the near-term outlook. That said, confidence remains historically subdued, and the present situation component showed less improvement, indicating that consumers are still feeling the strain of elevated prices and restrictive financial conditions. The release points to stabilization rather than a meaningful reacceleration in consumer demand.

On Thursday, initial jobless claims increased modestly to 212,000, up from the previous week but still below consensus expectations. The data continues to reinforce the narrative of a labor market that is cooling gradually rather than deteriorating sharply. Layoffs remain limited, and firms appear reluctant to reduce headcount materially, consistent with a “low-fire” environment. Overall, the claims data suggests labor market resilience while signaling that further tightening in employment conditions is unlikely.

Friday’s releases delivered a more mixed signal. The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.5% month-over-month, exceeding expectations and marking a notable reacceleration in wholesale inflation. Core PPI also remained firm, driven largely by services and trade margins, indicating that underlying price pressures have not fully dissipated. This data complicates the disinflation narrative and suggests that progress toward price stability may remain uneven. In contrast, Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surprised sharply to the upside at 57.7, moving decisively into expansion territory. Strength was broad-based across production, new orders, and employment, pointing to renewed momentum in regional manufacturing activity. Taken together, the week’s data highlights an economy that remains resilient, with pockets of strength in sentiment and manufacturing, but still facing persistent inflation pressures.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

The week ahead begins on Monday with Manufacturing PMI, which will provide an updated read on industrial activity. Recent manufacturing data has remained generally weak, reflecting soft demand and the ongoing impact of restrictive financial conditions. Markets will look for signs that activity is stabilizing rather than deteriorating further, as continued softness would reinforce the view that manufacturing remains a drag on overall growth.

Wednesday brings several key releases, starting with ADP Nonfarm Employment, which has recently pointed to moderating private-sector job growth. The data will be assessed for confirmation that labor demand is cooling gradually rather than weakening abruptly. The Services PMI, also released on Wednesday, will be closely watched given the sector’s outsized role in economic growth. Recent readings have shown expansion but with slowing momentum, particularly in new orders and pricing, raising questions about the persistence of demand and inflation pressures. Crude oil inventories will also be released, with recent volatility in inventory levels influencing near-term energy prices and headline inflation dynamics.

The week concludes on Friday with retail sales, nonfarm payrolls, and the unemployment rate, offering a broad view of consumer and labor market conditions. Retail sales have shown resilience but increasing unevenness, suggesting potential strain on household spending. The nonfarm payrolls employment report will be central to evaluating whether labor market cooling is continuing in an orderly fashion, while changes in the unemployment rate will indicate whether slack is emerging. Together, Friday’s data will play a key role in shaping expectations around growth, inflation, and monetary policy.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

Market Commentary | February 23rd. 2026

by lportee53 | Feb 23, 2026 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

February 23rd, 2026

Week in Review

Last week’s data provided investors with a clearer sense of an economy that is still progressing but slowing at the margins, with steady activity in some areas and renewed caution in others.

Regional manufacturing surveys helped to set the tone. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed modest expansion with a headline reading of 7.1, above the expected reading of 6.4. This was supported by improving labor conditions and rising backlogs, even as shipments softened. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index also came in strong at 16.3 versus the 7.5 expected. This substantial outperformance indicates a strong manufacturing sector in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district and could translate to a more resilient U.S. dollar in the coming weeks. Together, these reports indicate that early-quarter manufacturing remains stable.

Consumer sentiment provided additional context. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 57.3 in February, representing a modest increase from 56.4 in January of 2026. However, this is still nearly 20% below last year’s level for February. Also, year-ahead inflation expectations fell to 3.5%, while long-term expectations were up slightly to 3.4%. This suggests that households are adjusting gradually to the current price environment, even if confidence is still subdued.

Another important release was the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report, which increased by 0.4% month over month. This PCE reading was hotter than expected and signaled to investors that progress on inflation remains slow. This reinforced the idea that policymakers will proceed carefully before considering adjustments to current interest rate settings.

In addition, housing starts climbed to an annualized rate of 1.48 million, and building permits rose to 1.52 million. This indicated strengthening construction activity and improving builder confidence. However, pending home sales fell by 0.8% month over month, which reflected the persistent strain caused by limited resale supply and elevated prices.

Friday brought the release of the Q4 gross domestic product (GDP) estimate, which came in at 1.4%, far below the 2.8% growth that was expected. It is important to note that this weaker reading was influenced meaningfully by the extended federal government shutdown, which lasted from early October through mid-November. When taken alongside the firm PCE reading, this soft growth figure suggests that the path toward a balanced economic environment remains uneven and that incoming data will continue to guide market expectations.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

The final week of February will give investors a concentrated set of indicators that speak directly to the state of United States consumer conditions, manufacturing sentiment, housing dynamics, and underlying inflation pressures.

Tuesday will begin with the release of the S&P and Case-Shiller home price indices for December alongside the Federal Housing Finance Agency house price measure. These updates will provide an important read on home price momentum at a time when affordability remains a central concern for households. In addition, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index will round out the day and is likely to receive heightened attention, given the recent sensitivity of sentiment data to labor market and inflation developments.

Wednesday will feature the weekly crude oil inventories report from the Energy Information Administration, one of the most closely watched energy releases of the month. Recent data showed a sizable nine-million-barrel draw in mid-February, a figure that sharply exceeded expectations and signaled stronger-than-anticipated demand or tighter supply conditions. This week’s reading will help investors gauge whether that sharp draw was an anomaly or the beginning of a more persistent trend, which could influence both inflation expectations and broader risk sentiment, given the sensitivity of markets to energy prices.

The week will conclude with January producer price data and the February Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Producer prices will be watched closely as a signal of upstream inflation. The Chicago PMI will bring a timely regional perspective on manufacturing activity and will be evaluated for confirmation of trends seen in other February surveys. Construction spending data will also be released at the end of the week. This will provide insight into the current dynamics of both residential and nonresidential building activity.

In summary, the week’s releases carry the potential to clarify whether early-year momentum is continuing or cooling and will help shape expectations for both Federal Reserve policy and market positioning as the month draws to a close.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

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