Blog | Elsass Financial Group

Market Commentary | March 9th, 2026

by lportee53 | Mar 9, 2026 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

March 9th, 2026

Week in Review

Last week delivered many important macroeconomic releases, giving investors insight into an evolving U.S. economic landscape. In addition, the conflict in Iran has escalated dramatically, adding significant economic concerns.

Manufacturing data reflected moderate expansion. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 51.6, slightly above the 51.2 forecast, marking the seventh consecutive month of expansion. However, this was down from January’s reading of 53.4, signaling softer momentum and less new orders. For investors, this reinforces a narrative of sluggish industrial activity.

ADP Nonfarm Employment increased by 63,000 in February, above the consensus estimate of 50,000. This growth within the private sector was concentrated in construction, education, and health services. The upside surprise here suggests that labor cooling remains gradual, tempering expectations of imminent Federal Reserve easing.

The S&P Global Services PMI for February came in at 51.7, lower than the 52.3 expected. This decline was due to slower new orders, weaker export demand, and difficult trading conditions. However, the services sector continued to grow, with ISM Services PMI reporting a reading of 54.0, the 20^th consecutive month of expansion.

The headline payrolls print was the largest shock of the week. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000, far below the expected increase of 58,000, with unemployment rising to 4.4%. This raises concerns about labor-market softening, though wage growth has remained firm, complicating Federal Reserve policy expectations.

War in Iran

On the geopolitical front, joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28, 2026, targeting senior leadership, nuclear infrastructure, missile sites and strategic military assets. The Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in these strikes. Iran has retaliated with sustained missile and drone attacks targeting U.S. bases, Israel and Gulf nations allied with the U.S. President Trump has signaled that the campaign against Iran will continue for “as long as it takes.”

Iran has moved to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz, severely restricting a waterway responsible for roughly 20% of global oil and natural gas shipments. Traffic has dropped by more than 80%, with major firms suspending operations and insurers withdrawing coverage. This has led to oil markets pricing in a multi-week disruption. In addition, Qatar’s energy minister Saad al-Kaabi, said the ongoing conflict could force Gulf oil exporters to halt production within days.

Effects of this conflict have been felt almost immediately. On Friday, WTI oil prices surged 12% to $90.90 a barrel, and Brent oil rose 8.5% to $92.69 a barrel. Weekly gains were 36% for WTI and 27% for Brent, the largest percentage increases on record since 1983 and 1991, respectively. Large increases in the price of crude oil have in turn pushed gasoline prices higher, as well. These price increases have rekindled inflation fears, and markets have begun to reduce bets that the Federal Reserve will ease rates further despite the weakness in this week’s jobs report.

This conflict is broader and more intense than prior Iran flare-ups. Analysts suggest the war could last up to eight weeks, but if history is any guide this conflict can last far longer than most expect. With that said, even a short conflict could lead to lasting market dislocation. If the strait remains impaired, oil prices may rise further, threatening global growth. Overall, the conflict remains highly unstable, and we believe markets will continue to price in elevated geopolitical risk until a clear path toward de-escalation emerges.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

The week ahead will include many data releases, with a focus on housing, inflation, trade and consumer sentiment. This data will be used by investors to shape market sentiment and interest rate expectations. Investors will also be watching for any developments regarding the conflict in Iran.

Existing Home Sales on Tuesday will provide a key read on housing demand. February’s sales volume will provide a gauge on the effects of shifting mortgage rates and affordability pressures. Any signs of stabilization could support a firmer outlook for household formation and related sectors.

Wednesday will bring the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, a closely watched release. With inflation being a primary driver of Federal Reserve policy, investors will dissect both headline and core components. Markets will be looking for confirmation that disinflation trends are durable, especially within the shelter and services sectors.

Thursday will bring the U.S. trade balance, which will provide clarity on external demand dynamics. Investors will focus on the breakdown between the goods and services trade and hope for stabilization after months of global softness. This can also influence the tracking estimates of first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP).

Friday is the busiest day of the week, with several important releases. January Personal Income and Spending, Q4 GDP (second estimate) and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for March. These indicators will provide updated insight into income growth, real spending trends, and consumer attitudes as elevated borrowing costs continue to influence household behavior. The GDP update will also refine views on late-2025 momentum.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.0326-0860

Market Commentary | March 2nd, 2026

by lportee53 | Mar 2, 2026 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

March 2nd, 2026

Week in Review

Last week’s economic data began on Tuesday with the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rising to 91.2, up from 89.0 in the prior release. The improvement reflected stronger expectations around income and employment prospects, suggesting that households are becoming slightly more optimistic about the near-term outlook. That said, confidence remains historically subdued, and the present situation component showed less improvement, indicating that consumers are still feeling the strain of elevated prices and restrictive financial conditions. The release points to stabilization rather than a meaningful reacceleration in consumer demand.

On Thursday, initial jobless claims increased modestly to 212,000, up from the previous week but still below consensus expectations. The data continues to reinforce the narrative of a labor market that is cooling gradually rather than deteriorating sharply. Layoffs remain limited, and firms appear reluctant to reduce headcount materially, consistent with a “low-fire” environment. Overall, the claims data suggests labor market resilience while signaling that further tightening in employment conditions is unlikely.

Friday’s releases delivered a more mixed signal. The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.5% month-over-month, exceeding expectations and marking a notable reacceleration in wholesale inflation. Core PPI also remained firm, driven largely by services and trade margins, indicating that underlying price pressures have not fully dissipated. This data complicates the disinflation narrative and suggests that progress toward price stability may remain uneven. In contrast, Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surprised sharply to the upside at 57.7, moving decisively into expansion territory. Strength was broad-based across production, new orders, and employment, pointing to renewed momentum in regional manufacturing activity. Taken together, the week’s data highlights an economy that remains resilient, with pockets of strength in sentiment and manufacturing, but still facing persistent inflation pressures.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

The week ahead begins on Monday with Manufacturing PMI, which will provide an updated read on industrial activity. Recent manufacturing data has remained generally weak, reflecting soft demand and the ongoing impact of restrictive financial conditions. Markets will look for signs that activity is stabilizing rather than deteriorating further, as continued softness would reinforce the view that manufacturing remains a drag on overall growth.

Wednesday brings several key releases, starting with ADP Nonfarm Employment, which has recently pointed to moderating private-sector job growth. The data will be assessed for confirmation that labor demand is cooling gradually rather than weakening abruptly. The Services PMI, also released on Wednesday, will be closely watched given the sector’s outsized role in economic growth. Recent readings have shown expansion but with slowing momentum, particularly in new orders and pricing, raising questions about the persistence of demand and inflation pressures. Crude oil inventories will also be released, with recent volatility in inventory levels influencing near-term energy prices and headline inflation dynamics.

The week concludes on Friday with retail sales, nonfarm payrolls, and the unemployment rate, offering a broad view of consumer and labor market conditions. Retail sales have shown resilience but increasing unevenness, suggesting potential strain on household spending. The nonfarm payrolls employment report will be central to evaluating whether labor market cooling is continuing in an orderly fashion, while changes in the unemployment rate will indicate whether slack is emerging. Together, Friday’s data will play a key role in shaping expectations around growth, inflation, and monetary policy.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Market Commentary | February 23rd. 2026

by lportee53 | Feb 23, 2026 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

February 23rd, 2026

Week in Review

Last week’s data provided investors with a clearer sense of an economy that is still progressing but slowing at the margins, with steady activity in some areas and renewed caution in others.

Regional manufacturing surveys helped to set the tone. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed modest expansion with a headline reading of 7.1, above the expected reading of 6.4. This was supported by improving labor conditions and rising backlogs, even as shipments softened. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index also came in strong at 16.3 versus the 7.5 expected. This substantial outperformance indicates a strong manufacturing sector in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district and could translate to a more resilient U.S. dollar in the coming weeks. Together, these reports indicate that early-quarter manufacturing remains stable.

Consumer sentiment provided additional context. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 57.3 in February, representing a modest increase from 56.4 in January of 2026. However, this is still nearly 20% below last year’s level for February. Also, year-ahead inflation expectations fell to 3.5%, while long-term expectations were up slightly to 3.4%. This suggests that households are adjusting gradually to the current price environment, even if confidence is still subdued.

Another important release was the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report, which increased by 0.4% month over month. This PCE reading was hotter than expected and signaled to investors that progress on inflation remains slow. This reinforced the idea that policymakers will proceed carefully before considering adjustments to current interest rate settings.

In addition, housing starts climbed to an annualized rate of 1.48 million, and building permits rose to 1.52 million. This indicated strengthening construction activity and improving builder confidence. However, pending home sales fell by 0.8% month over month, which reflected the persistent strain caused by limited resale supply and elevated prices.

Friday brought the release of the Q4 gross domestic product (GDP) estimate, which came in at 1.4%, far below the 2.8% growth that was expected. It is important to note that this weaker reading was influenced meaningfully by the extended federal government shutdown, which lasted from early October through mid-November. When taken alongside the firm PCE reading, this soft growth figure suggests that the path toward a balanced economic environment remains uneven and that incoming data will continue to guide market expectations.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

The final week of February will give investors a concentrated set of indicators that speak directly to the state of United States consumer conditions, manufacturing sentiment, housing dynamics, and underlying inflation pressures.

Tuesday will begin with the release of the S&P and Case-Shiller home price indices for December alongside the Federal Housing Finance Agency house price measure. These updates will provide an important read on home price momentum at a time when affordability remains a central concern for households. In addition, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index will round out the day and is likely to receive heightened attention, given the recent sensitivity of sentiment data to labor market and inflation developments.

Wednesday will feature the weekly crude oil inventories report from the Energy Information Administration, one of the most closely watched energy releases of the month. Recent data showed a sizable nine-million-barrel draw in mid-February, a figure that sharply exceeded expectations and signaled stronger-than-anticipated demand or tighter supply conditions. This week’s reading will help investors gauge whether that sharp draw was an anomaly or the beginning of a more persistent trend, which could influence both inflation expectations and broader risk sentiment, given the sensitivity of markets to energy prices.

The week will conclude with January producer price data and the February Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Producer prices will be watched closely as a signal of upstream inflation. The Chicago PMI will bring a timely regional perspective on manufacturing activity and will be evaluated for confirmation of trends seen in other February surveys. Construction spending data will also be released at the end of the week. This will provide insight into the current dynamics of both residential and nonresidential building activity.

In summary, the week’s releases carry the potential to clarify whether early-year momentum is continuing or cooling and will help shape expectations for both Federal Reserve policy and market positioning as the month draws to a close.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.0226-0670

Market Commentary | February 16th, 2026

by lportee53 | Feb 16, 2026 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

February 16th, 2026

Week in Review

Last week’s data reinforced a familiar theme: inflation is cooling, the labor market is stabilizing, and the consumer is becoming more selective.

The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed continued, albeit uneven, progress on disinflation. Headline CPI rose 0.2% and eased to 2.4% year-over-year, helped by a 1.5% decline in energy prices that again acted as a drag on the overall index. Core CPI (e.g., food and energy) increased 0.3% for the month and held at 2.5% year-over-year. Beneath the surface, subdued core goods prices continued to counter persistent pressures in labor‑intensive services, while shelter inflation still added to core readings but at a diminishing pace. The marginal contribution of both owners’ equivalent rent and rent of primary residence continued to shrink, reinforcing the broader easing trend in housing costs and suggesting inflation pressures are becoming increasingly concentrated.

The January employment report delivered a notable upside surprise, with payroll growth coming in well above expectations. Yet the composition of job gains suggests the report was more consistent with job market stabilization than overheating. Hiring was concentrated in healthcare and construction, while government and finance weakened. Additionally, average hourly earnings rose 0.4% over the month. Given the sector mix, some of that firmness likely reflected composition rather than a broad-based pickup in wage pressure. Meanwhile, continuing claims edged up, hinting that re-employment is becoming more drawn out even as layoffs remain contained. Encouragingly, labor supply improved as participation rose to 62.5%, and both the unemployment rate and U‑6 declined, led by stronger prime‑age participation.

Even with these labor‑market improvements, markets remain focused on the retail consumer, where last week’s data hinted at softer momentum. December retail sales were flat (0.0% month-over-month) versus 0.3% expected, consistent with a post‑holiday cooldown and a shift toward value‑oriented spending. January existing‑home sales fell 8.4% to a 3.91 million annualized pace. While the series can be distorted by timing, weather, and other transitory factors, the directional message aligns with retail: households are becoming more discerning, and big‑ticket activity remains difficult to sustain. If this pattern persists, the consumer could become less of a growth buffer in early 2026, even as labor conditions remain broadly supportive.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

This week’s economic calendar shifts the focus from backward‑looking inflation data to forward‑looking sentiment and demand indicators, offering markets an early read on how businesses and consumers are navigating the current environment.

Against that backdrop, markets will be watching whether early‑month sentiment data confirm a cooling in activity or simply reflect short‑term volatility following January’s data‑heavy start to the year. Regional manufacturing surveys from the New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed will provide a first look at February activity and sentiment, often serving as precursors to broader national trends. In particular, markets will be watching the Philadelphia Fed’s employment component, which has historically been a useful barometer for labor demand at the margin.

Consumer sentiment will also be in focus with the release of the University of Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations survey. After recent inflation data showed continued progress but lingering pockets of stickiness, markets will be attentive to whether household inflation expectations remain anchored and how consumers are perceiving their own financial conditions. Given the growing emphasis on the retail consumer as a potential pressure point, this report will help complement the business‑side data with a demand‑side perspective.

The most consequential release of the week will be Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation. With markets increasingly sensitive to the timing and pace of future rate cuts, any confirmation that disinflation is continuing, particularly in core PCE, could meaningfully influence policy expectations and rate markets.

Housing data will round out the week, with building permits and housing starts providing insight into future construction activity and housing demand. As leading indicators, these reports are especially important for assessing momentum in the housing sector and, by extension, the health of the household balance sheet. Pending home sales will also be closely watched as an indicator of pipeline activity in the existing‑home market and a signal for transaction volumes in the months ahead.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.0226-0607

Market Commentary | February 9th, 2026

by lportee53 | Feb 9, 2026 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

February 9th, 2026

Message from the CIO

Insights from Harison Sidhu, Cambridge Chief Investment Officer

The past several weeks have delivered a meaningful uptick in market volatility, driven largely by rapid developments in artificial intelligence and shifting risk perceptions across several major asset classes. The catalyst has been the release of Claude Code, a product with the potential to disrupt a wide range of highly profitable software businesses.

While it’s difficult to determine whether the market is accurately assessing winners and losers at this stage, what is clear is that AI-driven capabilities are only getting stronger, and evaluating the strength of a company’s competitive moat has never been more important. We should note that we still feel strongly that in aggregate these technologies will create more business opportunities than they destroy and are likely to bring about significant productivity gains. This is desperately needed by the global economy and will not only help push stock prices higher but also aid countries with large debt servicing needs and even tame inflation.

These disruptive forces represent real risks for many existing business models, even as they create new opportunities for others. This dynamic has been especially challenging for public markets given the large weight of the technology and software sectors within major U.S. equity indices. As of February 5, 2026, the MSCI Software Index is down nearly 21% year-to-date, sharply underperforming the broader S&P 500.

Adding to the pressure, investors have become increasingly aware that large private market investment firms may hold significant exposure to the very software companies most at risk, whether through buyout strategies or private credit funds. In turn, publicly traded alternative asset managers have experienced notable share price declines, and allocators are increasingly focused on software exposure throughout their portfolios.

Crypto markets have not been immune either. Major cryptocurrencies have suffered brutal pullbacks, with Bitcoin losing nearly a third of its value in the first five weeks of this year alone. This downturn reinforces a trend we’ve been watching for some time: the rising correlation between digital assets and the technology sector. We hypothesize that many of the institutions and investors that actively purchase cryptocurrencies also tend to be overweight technology stocks in their portfolios. This relationship might undermine crypto’s perceived diversification benefits, particularly in chaotic environments, and contribute to deeper portfolio downturns during risk-off moments.

In our 2026 Market Outlook, we emphasized the importance of building more diversified, higher quality, and more defensive portfolios. Recent volatility underscores that message. Now more than ever, investors should consider expanding their opportunity set beyond U.S. large cap technology stocks, incorporating defensive and high-quality companies, international equities, smaller capitalization stocks, and healthy allocations to fixed income assets.

As always, we are here to help you navigate these shifts and assess what they mean for your portfolios. Please feel free to reach out with any questions or if you would like to discuss these developments in more detail or visit the Research Center to review more of our insights.

Week in Review

This week’s data offered a mix of momentum and moderation. Manufacturing activity improved, but labor indicators softened, and price pressures — especially in services — remained elevated.

Manufacturing: Growth with a Caveat

Business surveys opened the year on firmer footing. ISM Manufacturing returned to expansion at 52.6 (from 47.9), its first expansion in a year, led by New Orders (57.1), Production (55.9) and Backlog of Orders (51.6). Yet the survey also highlighted ongoing supply‑chain friction, with Supplier Deliveries (54.4) indicating slower lead times and customers’ inventories reported as “too low” (38.7), reinforcing a narrative of restocking demand. S&P Global’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) also signaled stronger output (the strongest since May 2022) but offered an important nuance: production outpaced new orders, contributing to further finished‑goods inventory accumulation — an imbalance that is difficult to sustain without clear demand reacceleration.

Employment: A Defensive Shift
The employment backdrop was less encouraging. ISM Manufacturing employment improved but remained in contraction at 48.1, suggesting firms are meeting higher activity with caution on headcount. ISM Services employment held just above breakeven at 50.3, indicating hiring is positive but fragile. Hard data echoed that cooling tone: December Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) openings fell to 6.5 million, and the job‑openings rate slipped to about 3.9%, reflecting softer labor demand into the year‑end. Weekly claims also weakened for a second week, with initial claims rising to 231,000 (week ending January 31) while continuing claims stayed low at 1.844 million. The Challenger report added to the caution, with 108,435 announced layoffs in January, the highest January total since 2009. In all, the labor market has been able to absorb the majority of the displaced workers; however, these figures point to a more defensive posture.

Inflation: Persistent Business Pressures
Inflation signals remain mixed. ISM price indexes stayed elevated (Services Prices at 66.6 and Manufacturing Prices at 59.0) pointing to ongoing cost pressure even as the labor market cools. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s preliminary February survey showed sentiment edging up to 57.3, with one‑year inflation expectations falling to 3.5% but long‑run expectations rising to 3.4%, a reminder that inflation psychology has not fully re‑anchored. If labor demand continues to cool, it could help temper inflation over time, but survey evidence suggests firms are still managing higher costs.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

The upcoming week presents a concentrated macro schedule as markets navigate a backlog of delayed reports following the recent federal government shutdown. This compressed data cycle serves as a critical inflection point, either validating recent manufacturing momentum or confirming the “defensive shift” observed in late-January labor indicators.

Labor: Testing the Defensive Posture

After weaker signals in job openings and a rise in announced layoffs, the rescheduled January payroll report becomes a critical audit of hiring momentum. Nonfarm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, and broader underemployment (U‑6) will help determine whether the current “fragile but functioning” hiring environment is slipping into a more persistent labor market slack. A higher underemployment rate or softer participation would suggest displaced workers are taking longer to find new roles, reinforcing the defensive tone seen in recent indicators.

Consumption and Inventories: The Restocking Audit

The consumer narrative will be clarified through core retail sales, while business inventories will provide a direct follow‑through to the “restocking” theme embedded in recent manufacturing surveys. Together, these releases should help separate a true demand rebound from a production-led inventory build. Housing data later in the week adds a rates-sensitive check on big-ticket household activity and whether elevated financing costs are still constraining turnover.

Inflation: Anchoring Price Psychology

The week also brings a key intersection of price stability and rates. Treasury auctions will gauge appetite for duration ahead of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. With business price indexes still elevated even as labor cools, CPI will shape whether inflation expectations continue to drift lower in the near term, or whether persistent cost pressures remain a structural risk to the soft-landing narrative.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.0226-0513

Market Commentary | February 2nd, 2026

by lportee53 | Feb 2, 2026 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

February 2nd, 2026

Week in Review…

Economic data released last week suggested mixed growth, with strengthening activity signals contrasting sharply with weaker consumer confidence, persistent producer level inflation, and a Fed meeting that underscored a steady policy stance amid ongoing economic uncertainty.

Durable goods orders for November rose 5.3% month-over-month, reflecting a rebound that was heavily influenced by transportation, with orders excluding transportation rising by 0.5% month-over-month. In summary, overall orders rose from the prior month; however, this improvement was largely driven by transportation while other categories were mixed.

In addition, consumer sentiment weakened materially. The Consumer Confidence Index fell to 84.5 in January from 94.2 in December. This suggests households are becoming more cautious, though the survey still reflected ongoing spending capacity for some consumers. Going forward, consumer attitudes may remain sensitive to incoming economic headlines.

The focal point of the week was the January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision and statement. The Fed held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. Their statement noted economic activity expanding at a solid pace, while job gains remained low. They highlighted that the unemployment rate is showing some signs of stability, with inflation remaining somewhat elevated. Going forward, the committee is emphasizing data dependence and balancing risks rather than signaling a shift in the policy path.

Late week inflation indicators added further context. Core producer prices in the United States, which exclude food and energy, jumped by 0.7% from the previous month in December 2025, the sharpest increase in five months, and firmly above market expectations of a softer 0.2% increase. Final demand prices for goods, less food and energy, were 0.4% higher, while those for services surged by 0.7%. This suggests that producer-level inflation could remain persistent if services margins continue to run high.

The final major headline of the week was the administration’s announcement that President Trump will nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. Looking ahead, investors will increasingly focus on the confirmation process and how leadership transition risk interacts with incoming data.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

Investors will take notice of several key U.S. releases over the week ahead. The first major data point arrives with the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a key measure of factory conditions across production, orders, and employment. This indicator will provide an updated read on whether factory activity is stabilizing after prior mixed signals.

Attention will then shift to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for December, a key measure of labor demand. This indicator will provide clarity on how employers are approaching hiring during the start of the new year. Trends in job openings, quits, and overall turnover may help indicate whether the labor market is loosening further or holding steady.

This week also includes a look at the broader U.S. services economy. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is a mid-week print that measures activity across the non-manufacturing sector. This report will help show whether service-sector momentum is holding up as February begins.

A timely read on layoffs arrives next with Initial Jobless Claims covering the week ending January 31. Recent claims have hovered around 209,000 and this update will offer a real-time indication of labor market steadiness or signs of emerging softening.

The week will end with the January Employment Situation Report. Payroll growth, unemployment figures, participation rates, and wage trends will help outline the state of the labor market entering the new year. As these indicators feed directly into assessments of household strength, this data will carry significant weight for policymakers and market observers.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.0226-0393