lportee53 | Elsass Financial Group

Market Commentary | January 12th, 2026

by lportee53 | Jan 12, 2026 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

January 12th, 2026

Week in Review…

Economic indicators over the recent period delivered a mixed but informative set of signals. The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in slightly worse than expected at 47.9% versus 48.3% expected, marking the tenthstraight month of contraction and the lowest reading of 2025. This could reflect weakness in U.S. manufacturing due to ongoing demand softness, cost pressures, and labor contraction. However, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.4% in December, up from 52.6% in November. This marked the strongest reading of the year and signals solid expansion in the services sector.

The ADP employment report showed a modest gain of 41,000 jobs added in December, rebounding from 29,000 in November, but falling short of the consensus expectation of 48,000. This indicates a continued underlying weakness in private hiring overall. Also, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed 7.1 million job openings, nearly unchanged from October but down approximately 885,000 year-over-year, marking a 14-month low. This may signal a cooling in labor demand reflected with fewer available positions.

U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 50,000 in December, falling short of expectations of 60,000-70,000. This was also down from the revised 56,000 gain in November. Despite this, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, the lowest level since September. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% month-over-month, indicating steady wage growth. This indicates stability in the labor market with hiring continuing at a slow pace even as wage pressure persists.

Initial jobless claims for the week rose to 208,000, up 8,000 from the prior week’s revised 200,000. However, this was below the forecast of 210,000. Despite this slight uptick, the low level of filings suggests that widespread layoffs have not materialized. Employers are hesitant to expand or cut payrolls amid economic uncertainty. Continuing claims also rose to 1.91 billion, pointing to longer job searches and softer re-employment.

The U.S. trade deficit narrowed sharply to $29.4 billion in November, down from 48.1 billion the prior month. This marks the smallest U.S. trade deficit since 2009. This was driven largely by one-off factors with a surge in gold exports and a drop in pharmaceutical imports. While this will boost Q4 GDP, this shift reflects temporary commodity and tariff effects rather than a broad-based improvement in trade.

Housing starts declined by 4.6% to a 1.25 million annualized rate in October, driven by a 26% plunge in multi-family units, while single-family starts rose 5.4%. This could signal a rebalancing in residential construction, with stronger demand for lone-unit homes but considerable weakness in apartment development.

These prints suggest that the economy is still expanding, powered by services demand and productivity gains. Meanwhile, manufacturing and some corporate-facing service categories remain under pressure. In addition, we are seeing a softening labor market where hiring is subdued and employers are cautious.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

The week ahead brings several U.S. economic releases that will provide clarity and guide market sentiment. Starting the week off, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December will be released on Tuesday, January 13. This reading will reveal whether price pressures continue to ease. A cooler CPI could reinforce the case for the Fed to begin policy easing in late 2026.

Wednesday is a data-heavy day that will begin with the Producer Price Index (PPI) for November. This will offer insights into wholesale price trends, a leading indicator of inflation. Retail sales will reflect consumer health over the holiday season. Also, existing home sales will give a signal regarding housing demand, complementing last week’s starts data.

Thursday’s releases include the Empire State Manufacturing Survey and the Philadelphia Fed Survey. These regional surveys will serve as early barometers for industrial activity ahead of national manufacturing shipments and durable goods data. Import price trends may give further clues to cost pressures.

The week concludes with Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization. This data on factory, mining and utility output will show if continued softness in the manufacturing sector persists or if there’s stabilization after last week’s PMI contraction.

The releases this week will be critical in confirming whether disinflation persists and consumer demand holds firm. These data points will shape expectations for growth and policy in the months ahead, helping determine if the U.S. stays on a soft-landing path or faces renewed headwinds.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.0126-0140

Market Commentary | January 5th, 2026

by lportee53 | Jan 5, 2026 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

January 5th, 2026

Week in Review…

Economic indicators over the recent period provide a nuanced view of U.S. conditions as the year closed. Crude oil inventories showed mixed results at the end of the year, with a small increase followed by a decline. However, product stockpiles — like gasoline and distillates — rose sharply, reinforcing the view that supply remains ample. This ongoing oversupply continues to weigh on prices, and markets are likely to stay sensitive to shifts in demand and any decisions from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus its allies (OPEC+).

The Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes, released on December 30, revealed a cautiously accommodative stance. While most officials anticipate further rate cuts, the minutes highlighted growing internal divisions over the pace and magnitude of easing. This signals a “wait and see” approach heading into early 2026, tempering expectations for aggressive policy moves.

Labor market data remained resilient despite holiday volatility. Initial jobless claims fell to 215,000 for the week ending December 20 and dropped further to 199,000 during Christmas week, one of the lowest readings of the year. These figures underscore limited layoffs even as hiring momentum shows signs of moderation.

Manufacturing activity softened to finish the year. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) finalized at 51.8 for December, down from 52.2 in November, indicating slower expansion and easing price pressures. Softer new orders and reduced selling-price inflation point to a disinflationary tilt in goods, aligning with cautious capital spending trends.

Overall, the data paints a picture of steady growth tempered by sector-specific headwinds. Energy oversupply and cooling factory activity contrast with a labor market that remains historically strong. Combined with a Federal Reserve leaning toward gradualism, these signals suggest a measured start to 2026, with markets likely to remain data-dependent in shaping expectations.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

The upcoming week brings several high-impact U.S. economic releases that will shape market sentiment and inform expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Manufacturing activity kicks off the week with the ISM Manufacturing PMI, where consensus points to continued softness. A weaker reading would reinforce concerns about slowing industrial demand, while any upside surprise could signal stabilization in factory output.

Midweek attention turns to labor and services data. The ADP Employment Report will provide an early look at private sector hiring ahead of Friday’s official jobs report. Markets anticipate modest job gains, consistent with a gradually cooling labor market. Alongside this, the ISM Services PMI and Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report will gauge demand resilience and labor tightness. Elevated job openings would suggest persistent wage pressures, while a decline could indicate easing constraints.

Thursday’s releases include initial jobless claims and the trade balance. Claims are expected to remain historically low, underscoring labor market resilience despite signs of moderation. The trade report will offer insight into external demand and supply chain dynamics as global conditions evolve.

The week concludes with the Employment Situation Report, the marquee release. Forecasts call for moderate payroll growth and stable unemployment, with wage trends serving as a critical signal for inflation and monetary policy.

Overall, this data-heavy week will test the narrative of a cooling economy amid disinflationary forces. Strong labor readings could delay anticipated rate cuts, while softer prints across manufacturing and services would reinforce expectations for a cautious Fed stance. Market volatility may spike midweek and Friday as traders recalibrate

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.0126-0011

Market Commentary | December 29th, 2025

by lportee53 | Dec 29, 2025 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

December 29th, 2025

Week in Review…

It was a shortened week due to the Christmas holiday, but several key economic reports were released that provided a snapshot of current conditions.

On Tuesday, Durable Goods Orders for November fell 2.2% month-over-month, a sharper decline than expected and a reversal from October’s gain. The weakness was driven by a steep drop in transportation equipment, particularly civilian aircraft orders. Excluding transportation, core orders rose a modest 0.2%, suggesting underlying manufacturing demand remains steady despite sector volatility.

Also Tuesday, the final estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) confirmed strong growth at an annualized 4.3%. Consumer spending and government outlays were key contributors, while inflation measures such as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index held at 2.8%, indicating price pressures remain elevated but manageable. In contrast, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 89.1 in December from 92.9 in November. The Present Situation Index dropped sharply, reflecting concerns about labor conditions and inflation, while expectations stayed subdued — signaling persistent caution among households heading into 2026.

On Wednesday, weekly jobless claims offered a more positive signal. Initial claims declined by 10,000 to 214,000, beating expectations and showing layoffs remain historically low. However, continuing claims edged up to 1.92 million, suggesting hiring may be slowing and more individuals are staying on unemployment rolls longer. This points to a labor market that is steady but cautious as employers maintain staffing levels without aggressively expanding.

In summary, last week’s data paints a mixed picture: economic growth remains strong, but consumer sentiment is weakening, and manufacturing faces headwinds from transportation volatility. The labor market continues to show resilience, though signs of cooling persist. As we move into the new year, markets and policymakers will watch closely to see whether consumer caution and slower hiring begin to weigh on broader momentum.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

It will be another shortened week, but several important releases could shape market sentiment as we close out the year.

On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve will publish the minutes from its most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. These minutes will provide deeper insight into policymakers’ discussions around inflation, growth, and the timing of future rate adjustments. Markets will be looking for any signals on how firmly the Fed intends to maintain its current stance or whether conditions could prompt a shift in 2026.

Wednesday brings the latest weekly jobless claims, a key gauge of labor market stability. While claims have remained historically low, any change in trend could influence expectations for consumer spending and overall economic resilience. Also on Wednesday, the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) will offer a regional snapshot of manufacturing activity. This measure often serves as an early indicator of broader industrial trends and supply chain dynamics.

Finally, on Friday, the Manufacturing PMI will provide a national view of factory conditions. This report is closely watched for signs of expansion or contraction in the sector, which plays a critical role in economic momentum.

Together, these releases will help clarify whether growth and labor strength can persist amid cautious consumer sentiment and ongoing inflation concerns.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.1229-4676

Market Commentary | December 22nd, 2025

by lportee53 | Dec 22, 2025 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

December 22nd, 2025

Week in Review…

Last week’s economic data offered a concentrated look at a U.S. economy in transition, with headline numbers masking deeper shifts beneath the surface.

Labor market signals were mixed. November’s hiring beat expectations, but the unemployment rate climbed to a four-year high of 4.6%, and October revisions revealed a loss of 105,000 jobs. The real story is in the details: companies are holding onto staff but cutting hours, driving the U-6 underemployment rate to 8.7% and swelling the ranks of involuntary part-time workers by 909,000. This “hours versus headcount” strategy means workers keep jobs but lose income and markets will likely be on the lookout for weaker consumer spending.

Data from the revised October nonfarm payroll indicates that the higher unemployment rate is mainly due to a loss of 162,000 federal government jobs, largely caused by deferred resignation offers. These displaced workers entered a private sector with frozen hiring, pushing the headline unemployment rate higher. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims remain low, reflecting corporate reluctance to let go of talent, but continuing claims are trending up, signaling that those who lose jobs are struggling to find new ones.

Inflation data delivered a dovish surprise, with headline CPI dropping to 2.7% (BLS). However, analysts caution that this lower-than-expected inflation report may be of “low quality,” as the reported rate could appear artificially low. Analysts specifically point to the collection of data during a period of unusually deep retail discounts and disruptions in the regular survey schedule, both factors that can temporarily suppress measured price increases and distort the true underlying inflation trend. At the same time, Average Hourly Earnings rose just 0.1% in November, indicating that labor is showing early signs of losing pricing power. Together, these reports point to easing wage-driven inflation, but the downside is clear: stagnant wages and shrinking paychecks threaten consumer demand.

Other Reports on the Radar

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (December): Sentiment index fell to 52.9, near historic lows, with labor anxiety now outweighing inflation concerns
Core Retail Sales (November, Census Bureau): Flat overall, with core sales up just 0.2%. Spending shifted toward essentials, while discretionary purchases lagged.
Business Inventories (November, Census Bureau): Rose 0.2%, with retail inventories up 0.4%. Rising inventories could signal slowing demand ahead.
Existing Home Sales (November, NAR): Increased 0.5% to 4.13 million units, but volume remains historically low. Median home price hit a record $409,200, erasing affordability gains from lower rates.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

The Fed’s preferred inflation metric, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), will be closely watched after last week’s “low quality” CPI reading. Investors will look for confirmation of a cooling trend, but any signs of distortion from holiday discounting or delayed data could temper enthusiasm for further Fed easing.

Housing market data will also be in focus, with housing starts and new home sales covering September through November. These releases will reveal whether demand is thawing or if high prices and mortgage rates continue to freeze buyers out. Any improvement in construction or sales could signal a shift, but persistent weakness would highlight ongoing affordability challenges.

Personal spending figures will offer a direct measure of consumer resilience. With wage growth stagnating and underemployment rising, November’s spending data will be scrutinized for signs that households are pulling back, especially on discretionary purchases. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence report will provide another perspective on household sentiment and comparing it to last week’s pessimistic University of Michigan survey will help gauge whether anxiety about jobs and the economy is broad-based.

From a business standpoint, the Industrial Production report and Core Durable Goods Orders will be important indicators of underlying momentum. Weakness here could signal that the slowdown is spreading from consumers to businesses, while any signs of strength might suggest resilience in investment and manufacturing.

Together, these reports will offer a comprehensive snapshot of inflation, consumer demand, and business activity, helping clarify the risks and opportunities as we head into 2026.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.1225-4649

Market Commentary | December 15th, 2025

by lportee53 | Dec 15, 2025 | Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

December 15th, 2025

Week in Review…

Last week’s economic calendar painted a nuanced picture of the U.S. economy, reflecting a softening labor market, mixed consumer activity, and divergent signals from manufacturing and services sectors.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, released Tuesday for October, showed job openings steady at 7.7 million, holding at a 4.6% rate. The Federal Reserve’s Wednesday decision saw the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) vote to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds target range to 3.50-3.75%. The Fed acknowledged slowing job growth and persistent inflation, signaling vigilance ahead. Chair Powell emphasized data dependence, while the “dot plot” suggested only one more rate cut in 2026.

On Thursday, initial jobless claims surged by 44,000 to 236,000, marking the largest weekly increase since the pandemic’s onset. Despite seasonal volatility post-Thanksgiving—economists stressed the four-week average remained stable—this spike reinforced market concerns about labor market fragility.

Friday’s retail sales data for November revealed a broad slowdown. Headline sales were flat month-over-month, below expectations, while the “control group” (excluding auto, gas, and services) rebounded modestly at +0.7%. Electronics and furniture saw notable strength, but building materials lagged, hinting at softer consumer momentum.

In sum, the week’s releases underscore a labor market losing steam and a cautious consumer base. The Fed’s rate cut aligns with this evolving backdrop, but persistent inflation and mixed signals leave further easing uncertain.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead…

The week ahead brings several critical data releases that could shape market sentiment and policy expectations. On Tuesday, attention turns to the labor market with nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate. These indicators will provide a clear snapshot of hiring momentum and overall economic resilience. A strong labor report would reinforce confidence in growth, while signs of weakness could amplify concerns about slowing demand. Also on Tuesday, manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings will offer insight into business activity. Divergence between these sectors could highlight the economy’s uneven footing, with manufacturing often signaling global trade pressures and services reflecting domestic strength.

On Thursday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will take center stage as investors gauge inflation trends. This report is pivotal for assessing whether price pressures are easing enough to keep the Federal Reserve on its current path. A softer reading could bolster expectations for policy accommodation, while persistent inflation might temper hopes for further rate cuts.

Finally, Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will round out the week. This measure not only tracks inflation but also reflects consumer spending behavior, making it a key determinant of monetary policy direction. Together, these releases will provide a comprehensive view of labor conditions, business activity, and inflation dynamics—critical inputs for markets navigating an uncertain economic landscape.

Economic Indicators:

CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
SA: Seasonally adjusted.
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Both are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Cambridge Investment Group, Inc. V.CIR.1225-4554