This past week offered a wealth of economic data, with inflation and consumer strength emerging as the dominant themes. Markets responded positively to signs of easing inflationary pressures and continued resilience in consumer demand, two key factors shaping the outlook for monetary policy and economic growth.

Due to the holiday weekend, last week was relatively quiet on the economic front. However, a few key indicators stood out.

Despite the shortened trading week due to the July 4 holiday, markets digested numerous key economic indicators. On Tuesday, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 49.0, signaling contraction in the manufacturing sector. The decline was driven by weakening new orders and continued softness in export demand, reflecting global economic uncertainty and the lingering effects of elevated interest rates.

Economic data released last week painted a mixed picture of U.S. activity. The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) held steady at 52.0 in June, matching May’s 15-month high and signaling continued expansion. Factory output rose for the first time in four months, and employment in the sector grew at its fastest pace in a year. Meanwhile, the Services PMI rose to 53.1, indicating a stronger pace of growth in the services sector, driven by increased new business and improved demand conditions.

Last week, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, maintaining the federal funds target range at 5.25%–5.50%. While the decision was widely anticipated, attention turned to Fed Chair Powell’s comments and the updated Summary of Economic Projections, which signaled a cautious stance on inflation and a slower path to rate cuts than previously expected. On the housing front, both Building Permits and Housing Starts for May came in lower than anticipated, offering insights into low builder sentiment amid elevated mortgage rates. At only 1.393 million for Building Permits and -9.8% for Housing Starts, economists will be watching to see if this will be a new trend. Meanwhile, as a key driver of gross domestic product (GDP), Core Retail Sales came in at -0.3%, providing a read of possible fatigue in consumer strength and spending behavior.

While last week was lighter on economic data, global headlines were anything but quiet. Trade talks between the U.S. and China took center stage, and rising tensions between Israel and Iran rattled investor confidence. Still, beneath the surface, key inflation data and shifting expectations quietly shaped the market narrative.

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